Aug 28, 2017

What a world run by virtual humans will be like

Robin Hanson gives a Ted talk

Economist Robin Hanson is the latest to weigh in on the thorny questions accompanying the future of AI, but approaches it with the tools of a macroeconomist to describe how emulated human brains—or as he calls them, "ems"—will interact with us in the economy of the future.

What Hanson predicts: In a recent Ted Talk, Hanson argues that in a world in which we have figured out how to recreate the human brain using computers, human labor will instantaneously become obsolete, because "they just can't compete" with artificial brains that will be as capable as the most intelligent humans (though not more so, as Hanson is not theorizing about the so-called "singularity" when artificial intelligence becomes super-human).

  • Because human emulations will be so productive, the economy will grow at unprecedented rates, making humans collectively very rich.
  • But because most "humans today don't actually own that much besides their ability to work," Hanson argues, we need to devise ways to share wealth in the future, or "most humans will starve."

Why we shouldn't worry that artificial intelligence will destroy humans: Hanson says emulated brains will not "kill us all and take our stuff" for the same reason we allow unproductive retirees to live in peace today. These computers will be created to be like us, and will share the same empathy and affection for humans that we do. At the same time, it will be in the AIs interest to keep human populations alive — killing us would disrupt the very institutions — governments, courts, and voluntary organizations—that bind together society and the economy. What will ems be like: Emulated humans will be modeled after the most productive humans, like Olympic gold medalists, Nobel Prize winners, or Fortune 500 CEOs. But because they won't face the same biological limits to processing speed the human brain faces, their artificial brains will operate much more quickly than ours, to the point that time moves much more slowly to them than it does to us. Ems will need resources like materials to make hardware and cooling apparatuses, just as humans need food and shelter.Ems will be very poor, however, because they will be able to replicate themselves much faster than the economy will grow. They will earn subsistence-level wages just as the vast majority of humans have throughout history. Therefore, ems will be working most of the time. The human race will adapt: The transition between a world of biological intelligence to artificial intelligence could be a rocky one, but it's likely that humans will decide to become ems themselves by artificially recreating their own brains, putting "humans" on a level playing field with their artificial bretheren.

p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica; color: #454545}

Go deeper

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 11:30 p.m. ET: 1,484,811 — Total deaths: 88,538 — Total recoveries: 329,876Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 11:30 p.m. ET: 432,132 — Total deaths: 14,817 — Total recoveries: 23,906Map.
  3. Federal government latest: Top Trump administration officials had been developing a plan to give cloth masks to huge numbers of Americans, but the idea lost traction amid heavy internal skepticism.
  4. States latest: New York has reported more cases than the most-affected countries in Europe. Chicago's Cook County jail is largest-known source of coronavirus in U.S.
  5. Business: One-third of U.S. jobs are at risk of disappearing, mostly affecting low-income workers.
  6. World: WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus urged countries to put politics aside "if you don’t want to have many more body bags.”
  7. Environment: COVID-19 is underscoring the connection between air pollution and dire outcomes from respiratory diseases.
  8. Tech: A new report recommends stimulus spending to help close the digital divide revealed by social distancing.
  9. What should I do? Pets, moving and personal healthAnswers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingQ&A: Minimizing your coronavirus risk.
  10. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it.

Subscribe to Mike Allen's Axios AM to follow our coronavirus coverage each morning from your inbox.

U.S. nearly empties medical supplies stockpile to fight coronavirus

The Intensive Care Unit of MedStar St. Mary's Hospital on April 8 in Leonardtown, Maryland. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

The federal government is in the process of deploying 90% of its stockpiled medical equipment to fight the coronavirus pandemic, Health and Human Services spokesperson Katie McKeogh told Axios Wednesday night.

Why it matters: These shipments aren't enough to meet current demands from states, who are bracing for staggered surges in hospital resource demand through May.

Go deeperArrow27 mins ago - Health

U.S. coronavirus updates: Daily death toll exceeds 2,000

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

The novel coronavirus has now killed more than 2,000 people for the second day in a row, and it's infected more than 431,000 others, per Johns Hopkins data.

Where it stands: More than 14,700 people have died of COVID-19 in the U.S. — including over 4,500 in New York. The state's death toll surged to its highest one-day total on Wednesday — beating the previous day's record. 779 people died in New York in 24 hours. The state has reported more cases than the most-affected countries in Europe.

Go deeperArrowUpdated 2 hours ago - Health