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Cliff Owen / AP

Hundreds of thousands of people in a typical state would lose coverage under a standard Republican Obamacare repeal and replacement plan, and the state would lose anywhere between 65 and 80 percent of its federal health care funding, according to a presentation governors were given at a meeting in Washington Saturday.

Governors from both parties were presented with the findings during a National Governors Association closed-door health care meeting. The analyses, obtained by Axios, were presented by Avalere Health and McKinsey & Co. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price also spoke to the group.

The impact would vary by state, but in a sample state that expanded Medicaid, it's estimated that:

  • The state would lose $635 million in federal funding, a 65 percent decrease.
  • 110,000 current enrollees would no longer be able to afford a plan.
  • 20,000 currently uninsured people would buy a plan with the new tax credit provided by the GOP plan.
  • Additionally, 115,000 low-income people may lose Medicaid coverage, with no affordable alternative on the individual market.
  • A per capita cap — which would limit funding for each person in the program — would reduce federal spending by 24 percent over five years, requiring the state to spend $6.2 billion to close the gap.

In a sample non-expansion state, it's estimated that:

  • The state would lose $885 million in federal funding, an 80 percent decrease.
  • 130,000 current enrollees would no longer be able to afford a plan.
  • 10,000 currently uninsured people would be able to buy coverage with the new tax credit.
  • A per capita cap would reduce federal spending by 6 percent over five years, requiring states to spend $1.5 billion to close the gap.

It also found that reduced federal Medicaid funding would likely result in reduced enrollment, a greater uncompensated care burden for providers, lower state revenues, and reduced economic activity. It could also hurt job growth.

What the governors think: They're not happy. A phaseout of Medicaid expansion would be "very difficult," said Alaska Gov. Bill Walker. "We've had 29,000 Alaskans that now receive health care as a result of that ... We hope we don't have to face that decision."

OTOH: Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin is on the side of the fiscal hawks: "If [the dollars] don't actually exist, we can't keep pretending there's an endless supply of them saved up in a pot somewhere that will keep getting handed to us."

Go deeper

Schumer's m(aj)ority checklist

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Photo: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

Capitalizing on the Georgia runoffs, achieving a 50-50 Senate and launching an impeachment trial are weighty to-dos for getting Joe Biden's administration up and running on Day One.

What to watch: A blend of ceremonies, hearings and legal timelines will come into play on Tuesday and Wednesday so Chuck Schumer can actually claim the Senate majority and propel the new president's agenda.

The dark new reality in Congress

National Guard troops keep watch at security fencing. Photo: Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

This is how bad things are for elected officials and others working in a post-insurrection Congress:

  • Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.) said she had a panic attack while grocery shopping back home.
  • Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) said police may also have to be at his constituent meetings.
  • Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) told a podcaster he brought a gun to his office on Capitol Hill on Jan. 6 because he anticipated trouble with the proceedings that day.
Off the Rails

Episode 3: Descent into madness ... Trump: "Sometimes you need a little crazy"

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Beginning on election night 2020 and continuing through his final days in office, Donald Trump unraveled and dragged America with him, to the point that his followers sacked the U.S. Capitol with two weeks left in his term. This Axios series takes you inside the collapse of a president.

Episode 3: The conspiracy goes too far. Trump's outside lawyers plot to seize voting machines and spin theories about communists, spies and computer software.

President Trump was sitting in the Oval Office one day in late November when a call came in from lawyer Sidney Powell. "Ugh, Sidney," he told the staff in the room before he picked up. "She's getting a little crazy, isn't she? She's really gotta tone it down. No one believes this stuff. It's just too much."