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Volkswagen projected to be largest EV manufacturer by end of decade

Data: Wood Mackenzie; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Volkswagen won't meet its electric vehicle targets, but it'll come close enough to become the world's largest EV manufacturer by decade's end, a new analysis finds.

Why it matters: The new projections from the consultancy Wood Mackenzie offer a piece of the puzzle as to how the increasingly competitive EV market will shake out this decade.

What it found: Wood Mackenzie's base case sees VW manufacturing 14 million vehicles by 2028.

  • That's well short of its plan to reach 22 million that's part of its wider climate goals, but would still "represent 27% of all global EVs, requiring 30% of battery cell supply," the firm said.

The big picture: It shows how legacy automakers will be huge players even as newer entrants — most notably Tesla — grab lots of attention. As of 2018 VW was only in 10th place when it comes to EV manufacturing, Wood Mackenzie said.

  • "VW views battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as the most effective means of CO2 reduction. Currently, there is very little overlap between the top ten automakers and top ten BEV makers. In fact, only three companies — Nissan, Hyundai and VW — appear on both lists," the consultancy said.

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