Mar 6, 2019

Venezuela's rising debt

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Data: Institute of International Finance; Chart: Axios Visuals

Venezuela has ratcheted up its debt over the past few years, even as the country has been officially cut off from international credit markets and is facing U.S. sanctions.

What's happening: A new debt estimate from the Institute of International Finance finds the country has been issuing a steadily growing pile of debt through state-owned oil company PDVSA and private debt deals with the likes of China and Russia. But the central government also has managed to run up significant debt.

  • Venezuela's debt stock rose from around $62 billion in 2007 to nearly $156 billion last year, IIF's economists estimate.

Details: IIF economists tracked debt to exports and found that Venezuela's external debt is about 738% of its exports. That's more than 4 times the average for comparable emerging and frontier markets. It's also more than 200% higher than the level of debt to exports IIF estimated Venezuela carried just 2 years ago.

  • The next closest country is Tajikistan, which issued its first ever bond in 2017 for $500 million.
  • Because Venezuela hasn't kept reliable economic data for years and has barred bodies like the IMF and World Bank from conducting their own research, it's not even possible to determine Venezuela's debt to GDP ratio.

On the bright side: Nomura's head of Latin America fixed income strategy, Siobhan Morden, tells Axios she expects that Venezuela will be in much better position to pay off investors once a new government is in place.

  • "When bonds are repaid in 10 years or so the ability to repay should be much higher if you assume that they can recover oil production."

Go deeper ... Oil Sanctions: the "tremendous opportunity" in Venezuela

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World coronavirus updates: Italy becomes 2nd country to exceed 100,000 cases

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins, the CDC, and China's Health Ministry. Note: China numbers are for the mainland only and U.S. numbers include repatriated citizens and confirmed plus presumptive cases from the CDC

Spain and Italy extended lockdown deadlines on Monday, as Italy became the second country in the world to surpass 100,000 confirmed coronavirus cases.

The big picture: COVID-19 cases surged past 755,000 and the death toll topped 36,000 by Monday, per Johns Hopkins data. Italy reported more than 11,500 total deaths.

Go deeperArrowUpdated 4 mins ago - Health

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 1 p.m. ET: 745,308 — Total deaths: 35,307 — Total recoveries: 156,875.
  2. U.S.: Leads the world in confirmed cases. Total confirmed cases as of 1 p.m. ET: 143,672 — Total deaths: 2,575 — Total recoveries: 4,865.
  3. Federal government latest: The White House will extend its social distancing guidelines until April 30 — Hospital ship the USNS Comfort arrives in Manhattan.
  4. Business latest: Macy's will furlough the majority of it's workers this week, as the chain's stores remain closed.
  5. World updates: Spain and Italy extend lockdown deadlines while Italy becomes second country to surpass 100,000 confirmed cases.
  6. 🎧 Podcast: Living with the coronavirus
  7. What should I do? Answers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingQ&A: Minimizing your coronavirus risk
  8. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it.

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U.S. coronavirus updates: Majority of governors order residents to stay home

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

At least 29 state governors have ordered their residents to stay home to promote social distancing and limit community spread from the coronavirus pandemic as the U.S. copes with more than 144,000 positive cases — more than any other country in the world, per Johns Hopkins data.

The big picture: COVID-19 killed over 2,500 people in the U.S. by Monday. That's far fewer than in Italy, where over 10,700 people have died — accounting for a third of the global death toll. The number of people who've recovered from the virus in the U.S. exceeded 4,800.

Go deeperArrowUpdated 31 mins ago - Health