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A Venezuelan protester with "Freedom" painted on her face. Photo: Jesus Merida/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Investors hoping for the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro may get more good news this week. The Trump administration signaled it may impose new sanctions against the country's oil sector — the lifeblood of Venezuela's economy and only major source of revenue.

Driving the news: The news followed the announcement Wednesday the U.S. would recognize Juan Guaido, head of Venezuela's National Assembly, as the country's president, not Maduro.

  • "If things change in Venezuela it would be a tremendous opportunity," Jan Dehn, head of research at Ashmore told me late last year. He predicted Venezuela's bonds could double in price if a new president takes office.

The big picture: The country’s sovereign bond maturing in 2027 rose on Wednesday to its highest level since June. That’s notable considering the 2027 bond, and all but one of Venezuela’s other bonds, have been in default since November 2017.

  • "There's a tremendous rally happening with the expectation that regime change leads to eventual restructuring of these bonds," said a fund manager from a major firm who asked not to be identified because he’s not permitted to discuss Venezuela’s debt. "The market is pricing in Maduro's exit as closer than we previously thought."

What's next? The oil sanctions may be the final nail in the coffin of a leader who has presided over an economy expected to hit 10,000,000% inflation this year with a 90% poverty rate.

My thought bubble: Maduro's ouster could be an inflection point in the country's history, but it will take a lot of work to turn what's effectively become a failing narco/petro-state into a functioning economy.

  • Venezuela owes international creditors an estimated $150 billion. A new regime will need to come to terms with creditors in order to be given access to international credit markets again and start rebuilding.
  • The country is producing oil at a 70-year low and analysts believe it could be three to five years before it is able to pump oil at its potential rate again.
  • There would almost certainly need to be a bailout from the IMF, which hasn't even been allowed to enter the country in years. Simply assessing Venezuela's needs could take years and the economy could continue to falter even after an aid package is administered.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

Cuomo asks New York AG and chief judge to choose "independent" investigator into sexual harassment claims

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo at a press conference on Feb. 24. Photo: Seth Wenig/pool/AFP via Getty Images

A special counselor to New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo released a statement Sunday asking the state's attorney general and chief judge to jointly pick an "independent and qualified lawyer in private practice without political affiliation" to investigate claims of sexual harassment against the governor. The AG's office subsequently turned down the offer, saying it wants to conduct its own probe.

The state of play: The statement is an about-face from Cuomo, who had previously selected a former judge close to a top aide to lead the investigation, the New York Times reported, a move that was widely criticized.

Republican Sen. Sasse slams Nebraska GOP for "weird worship" of Trump after state party rebuke

Sen. Ben Sasse, (R-Neb.) Photo: Andrew Harnik - Pool/Getty Images

The Nebraska Republican Party on Saturday formally "rebuked" Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) for his vote to impeach former President Trump earlier this year, though it stopped short of a formal censure, CNN reports.

Why it matters: Sasse is the latest among a slate of Republicans who have faced some sort of punishment from their state party apparatus after voting to impeach the former president. The senator responded statement Saturday, per the Omaha World-Herald, saying "most Nebraskans don't think politics should be about the weird worship of one dude."

Cuomo barraged by fellow Dems after second harassment accusation

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo faced a barrage of criticism from fellow Democrats after The New York Times reported that the second former aide in four days had accused him of sexual harassment.

Why it matters: Cuomo had faced a revolt from legislators for his handling of nursing-home deaths from COVID. Now, the scandal is acutely personal, with obviously grave political risk.