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Expand chart
Data: Yahoo! Finance, U.S. Dept. of the Treasury; Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios

It appears nothing can move long-dated U.S. Treasury yields higher. At around 2.6%, the yield on benchmark 10-year notes is almost unchanged from where it was in late 2017 just before the enactment of the Tax Cut & Jobs Act.

Why it matters: Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, argues in a recent note to clients that the yield curve is signaling "weak global economic growth and low inflation without necessarily implying a recession in the U.S."

By the numbers: Yardeni notes that since the Tax Cut & Jobs Act, "the 12-month federal budget deficit has ballooned from $681 billion through December 2017 to $914 billion through January 2019."

That explains the strong rebound in U.S. stocks so far this year, he says. Credit spreads "also support this thesis" as the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and high yield corporate bonds has fallen significantly since Dec. 24.

The bottom line: "Perhaps," Yardeni writes, "there is too much pessimism about the global economic outlook."

Go deeper: Last week, U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest level in about 2 months

Go deeper

Biden speaks with Macron for first time since diplomatic crisis

President Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron have a conversation ahead of the NATO summit in Brussels, on June 14, 2021. Photo: Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

President Biden on Wednesday spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron for the first time since a diplomatic row erupted over a scrapped submarine order, per the White House.

Driving the news: Macron said that the French ambassador will return to Washington next week and will resume working with senior U.S. officials.

58 mins ago - World

Scoop: U.S. and Israel held secret talks on Iran "plan B"

Bennett and Biden. Photo: Sarahbeth Maney/Pool/Getty Images

The U.S. and Israel held secret talks on Iran last week to discuss a possible “plan B” if nuclear talks are not resumed, two senior Israeli officials tell me.

Why it matters: This is the first time a top-secret U.S.-Israel strategic working group on Iran has convened since the new Israeli government took office in June.

1 hour ago - World

Scoop: Jake Sullivan plans to visit Saudi Arabia, Egypt and UAE next week

Sullivan. Photo: Yasin Ozturk/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

White House National Security adviser Jake Sullivan is planning to travel to the Middle East next week, including a stop in Saudi Arabia. He would be the most senior Biden administration official to visit the kingdom.

Why it matters: Sullivan's first trip to the region since taking office is expected to include stops in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, sources briefed on the plans tell Axios. All three countries are longtime U.S. partners who have faced some early tensions with Biden.