Sign up for our daily briefing
Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Denver news in your inbox
Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver
Des Moines news in your inbox
Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines
Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox
Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities
Tampa Bay news in your inbox
Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay
Charlotte news in your inbox
Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte
It appears nothing can move long-dated U.S. Treasury yields higher. At around 2.6%, the yield on benchmark 10-year notes is almost unchanged from where it was in late 2017 just before the enactment of the Tax Cut & Jobs Act.
Why it matters: Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, argues in a recent note to clients that the yield curve is signaling "weak global economic growth and low inflation without necessarily implying a recession in the U.S."
By the numbers: Yardeni notes that since the Tax Cut & Jobs Act, "the 12-month federal budget deficit has ballooned from $681 billion through December 2017 to $914 billion through January 2019."
That explains the strong rebound in U.S. stocks so far this year, he says. Credit spreads "also support this thesis" as the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and high yield corporate bonds has fallen significantly since Dec. 24.
The bottom line: "Perhaps," Yardeni writes, "there is too much pessimism about the global economic outlook."
Go deeper: Last week, U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest level in about 2 months