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Data: NABE; Chart: Axios Visuals

The National Association for Business Economics sees a grim future for the U.S. and global growth over the next two years, with more than 60% predicting U.S. GDP will remain below its 2019 level until at least 2022.

Why it matters: Initially expected to be a short-term economic stall, consensus is growing among economists that the slowdown triggered by the pandemic is becoming a protracted weight on the economy that will reduce growth and employment for years.

  • Only one respondent among the organization's 235 surveyed members expects GDP will reclaim its pre-COVID-19 level in 2020.

By the numbers: While 41% of panelists expect U.S. jobs growth to return to its February level sometime in 2022, 34% expect that will not occur before 2023, while just 18% anticipate it happening in 2021.

  • The median expectation is that 40% of all business closures as a result of the pandemic will be permanent.

What's next: Most respondents see risks to even this dour outlook as being tilted to the downside, with nearly 80% saying there is at least a one-in-four chance of a double-dip recession.

  • 63% say there's a one-in-three chance.
  • Nearly half (47%) say there's a one-in-two chance of a double-dip recession.

Of note: The historically right-leaning organization favors the Democrat in this year's presidential election on the economy.

  • "A majority of respondents believes that former Vice President Biden would be better at promoting U.S. economic growth than President Trump (62% compared to 25%)."

Go deeper

Biden's economic team will write a new crisis playbook

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

Joe Biden's economic team faces a daunting task helping the millions of Americans who have lost their jobs or otherwise been financially ravaged by the coronavirus. But most of them have first-hand crisis experience, dating back to when Barack Obama inherited a crumbling economy when he took office in 2009.

Why it matters: Most of President-elect Biden's economic nominees served in the Obama administration, and wish that they could have gone bigger to help America recover from the 2008 financial crisis. But it's not going to be easy for them to push through massive fiscal spending in 2021.

Mike Allen, author of AM
4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Biden adviser Cedric Richmond sees first-term progress on reparations

Illustration: "Axios on HBO"

White House senior adviser Cedric Richmond told "Axios on HBO" that it's "doable" for President Biden to make first-term progress on breaking down barriers for people of color, while Congress studies reparations for slavery.

Why it matters: Biden said on the campaign trail that he supports creation of a commission to study and develop proposals for reparations — direct payments for African-Americans.

Cyber CEO: Next war will hit regular Americans online

Any future real-world conflict between the United States and an adversary like China or Russia will have direct impacts on regular Americans because of the risk of cyber attack, Kevin Mandia, CEO of cybersecurity company FireEye, tells "Axios on HBO."

What they're saying: "The next conflict where the gloves come off in cyber, the American citizen will be dragged into it, whether they want to be or not. Period."