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Data: NABE; Chart: Axios Visuals

The National Association for Business Economics sees a grim future for the U.S. and global growth over the next two years, with more than 60% predicting U.S. GDP will remain below its 2019 level until at least 2022.

Why it matters: Initially expected to be a short-term economic stall, consensus is growing among economists that the slowdown triggered by the pandemic is becoming a protracted weight on the economy that will reduce growth and employment for years.

  • Only one respondent among the organization's 235 surveyed members expects GDP will reclaim its pre-COVID-19 level in 2020.

By the numbers: While 41% of panelists expect U.S. jobs growth to return to its February level sometime in 2022, 34% expect that will not occur before 2023, while just 18% anticipate it happening in 2021.

  • The median expectation is that 40% of all business closures as a result of the pandemic will be permanent.

What's next: Most respondents see risks to even this dour outlook as being tilted to the downside, with nearly 80% saying there is at least a one-in-four chance of a double-dip recession.

  • 63% say there's a one-in-three chance.
  • Nearly half (47%) say there's a one-in-two chance of a double-dip recession.

Of note: The historically right-leaning organization favors the Democrat in this year's presidential election on the economy.

  • "A majority of respondents believes that former Vice President Biden would be better at promoting U.S. economic growth than President Trump (62% compared to 25%)."

Go deeper

Biden's economic team will write a new crisis playbook

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

Joe Biden's economic team faces a daunting task helping the millions of Americans who have lost their jobs or otherwise been financially ravaged by the coronavirus. But most of them have first-hand crisis experience, dating back to when Barack Obama inherited a crumbling economy when he took office in 2009.

Why it matters: Most of President-elect Biden's economic nominees served in the Obama administration, and wish that they could have gone bigger to help America recover from the 2008 financial crisis. But it's not going to be easy for them to push through massive fiscal spending in 2021.

House passes bill to decriminalize marijuana

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.), a longtime marijuana legalization advocate and co-sponsor of the bill. Photo: Pete Marovich For The Washington Post via Getty Images

The House on Friday voted 228-164 in favor of the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act, marking the first time a congressional chamber has voted in favor of decriminalizing marijuana at the federal level.

Why it matters: The Washington Post describes the bill as a "landmark retreat in the nation’s decades-long war on drugs," which has disproportionately affected people of color.

Updated 16 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Politics: Fauci says he accepted Biden's offer to be chief medical adviser "on the spot" — Biden plans to ask public to wear masks for first 100 days in office.
  2. Health: Coronavirus death rates rising across the country — Study: Increased COVID-19 testing can reduce transmission — Hospitalizations top 100,000 for the first time.
  3. Economy: U.S. economy adds 245,000 jobs in November as recovery slows — America's hidden depression: K-shaped recovery threatens Biden administration.
  4. Vaccine: What COVID-19 vaccine trials still need to do — Obama, Bush and Clinton willing to take vaccine in public —WSJ: Pfizer expects to ship half as many COVID vaccines as planned in 2020.