Data: NABE; Chart: Axios Visuals

The National Association for Business Economics sees a grim future for the U.S. and global growth over the next two years, with more than 60% predicting U.S. GDP will remain below its 2019 level until at least 2022.

Why it matters: Initially expected to be a short-term economic stall, consensus is growing among economists that the slowdown triggered by the pandemic is becoming a protracted weight on the economy that will reduce growth and employment for years.

  • Only one respondent among the organization's 235 surveyed members expects GDP will reclaim its pre-COVID-19 level in 2020.

By the numbers: While 41% of panelists expect U.S. jobs growth to return to its February level sometime in 2022, 34% expect that will not occur before 2023, while just 18% anticipate it happening in 2021.

  • The median expectation is that 40% of all business closures as a result of the pandemic will be permanent.

What's next: Most respondents see risks to even this dour outlook as being tilted to the downside, with nearly 80% saying there is at least a one-in-four chance of a double-dip recession.

  • 63% say there's a one-in-three chance.
  • Nearly half (47%) say there's a one-in-two chance of a double-dip recession.

Of note: The historically right-leaning organization favors the Democrat in this year's presidential election on the economy.

  • "A majority of respondents believes that former Vice President Biden would be better at promoting U.S. economic growth than President Trump (62% compared to 25%)."

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Sep 8, 2020 - Economy & Business

Possible restrictions on Chinese chip exports could do harm to U.S. growth

Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Trump administration's trade war with China and the coronavirus pandemic have crippled U.S. exports this year and could worsen as the administration reportedly is considering export restrictions on China’s most advanced manufacturer of semiconductors.

Where it stands: The U.S. trade deficit has risen to its highest since July 2008 and U.S. exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP shrank to the lowest level since 2003 in the second quarter.

Erica Pandey, author of @Work
Sep 8, 2020 - Economy & Business

There aren't enough jobs for America's unemployed

Expand chart
Data: Indeed; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

The number of unemployed Americans vastly outnumbers the number of open jobs in every single state.

Why it matters: Even though we've come back from the worst unemployment numbers, the pandemic's economic toll keeps turning furloughs into job losses — and pushing millions of people out of the workforce entirely.

Updated 52 mins ago - Politics & Policy

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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

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