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Reproduced from Bloomberg via Bank of Russia; Chart: Axios Visuals

Experts are again sounding the alarm that the dollar could lose its role as the world's reserve currency. This is a frequent and historically unconsummated concern — but things may actually be different this time.

What's happening: New data from the Bank of Russia show the country now receives more euros than dollars for its exports to China, with the share of goods purchased in euros rising from 0.3% at the start of 2014 (and just 1.3% in the second quarter of 2018) to nearly 51% at the end of Q1 this year.

  • The share of euros Russia receives for exports to the European Union increased to 43% from 38% at the end of last year, the data show.

Why it matters: The euro is the dollar's strongest competitor, making up the second largest percentage of global currency reserves — 20% of central bank holdings versus around 60% for the dollar, according to the IMF.

Flashback: As I wrote last week, more speculators are lining up bullish bets that the euro will rise and that the dollar will fall than at any time in history, according to CFTC data.

Between the lines: A growing chorus of investors, including billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, has worried openly in recent months that the U.S. response to the coronavirus pandemic — trillions in balance sheet expansion from the Fed and trillions in government spending while still having the world's worst outbreak — is further undercutting the dollar's supremacy.

  • Goldman Sachs currency strategists have pointed to the rising value of gold as evidence that the U.S. could be "debasing" its currency and creating “real concerns around the longevity of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency.”
  • Instead of dollars, many central banks have increased purchases of gold, especially those in China, Russia, India and Turkey in recent years, with 2018 and 2019 the first and second highest years for annual purchases on record.

The big picture: There has been a long-term concerted effort by Russia and China to move the world away from the dollar — this is now aligning with the coronavirus pandemic, the eurozone's unification, and a moment of weakness for the United States.

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Nov 9, 2020 - Economy & Business

Emerging market assets are back in the spotlight

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The expected gridlock in Washington and more monetary easing across the globe combined with a less antagonistic approach to countries like Mexico and China from President-elect Biden is getting asset managers excited about emerging markets again.

State of play: Fund managers at JPMorgan Asset Management say EM assets are in a “sweet spot” in the months ahead, especially bonds denominated in local currency.

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Nov 9, 2020 - Economy & Business

Another central bank easing cycle begins

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Central banks already have started priming their collective money printers and in the coming months are poised to crank them up to 11, buying up more bonds and delivering more liquidity to markets.

Why it matters: The recent rally in equities now has more backing from central banks.

Biden will reverse Trump's attempt to lift COVID related travel restrictions

Photo: Tasos Katopodis via Getty

The incoming Biden administration will reverse President Trump's last-minute order to lift COVID-19 related travel restrictions, Jen Psaki, the incoming White House press secretary, tweeted.

Why it matters: President Trump ordered entry bans lifted for travelers from the U.K., Ireland, Brazil and much of Europe to go into effect Jan. 26, but the Biden administration will "strengthen public health measures around international travel in order to further mitigate the spread of COVID-19," Jen Psaki said. Biden will be inaugurated on Wednesday, Jan. 20 and Trump will no longer be president by the time the order is set to go into effect.