Photo: Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Even before expected new stimulus measures are passed, the U.S. government's annual deficit will likely top $4 trillion this year, analysts at BMO Capital Markets write.

Why it matters: "These are astronomical numbers that will reshape the Treasury market for years, if not decades, to come."

By the numbers: BMO estimates the U.S. will need to borrow more than $4.3 trillion, with the bulk of debt being financed as Treasury bonds in the second and third quarters, totaling roughly $3.5 trillion — $1.9 trillion and $1.6 trillion, in each quarter, respectively.

  • The previous quarterly net issuance record was "a comparatively minimal $569.2 billion" in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Between the lines: The Fed is currently equipped to buy around $2.6 trillion through its quantitative easing program, leaving a $1.7 trillion mountain for the market to swallow, BMO analysts say.

What's next: The Bank of America Global Research expects Congress to pass another large package worth up to $1.5 trillion that "extends on provisions in the CARES Act and provides much needed aid to State and Local Governments."

  • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin confirmed in a recent interview that the White House expects much more debt to come: “This is a war, and we need to win this war and we need to spend what it takes to win the war."

Go deeper

Updated 4 hours ago - Health

World coronavirus updates

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Axios Visuals

The number of COVID-19 cases surpassed 20 million worldwide on Monday evening, Johns Hopkins data shows.

The big picture: World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a virtual press conference as the world approached the milestone that 750,000 deaths were set to be recorded this week. "Behind these statistics is a great deal of pain and suffering. Every life lost matters," he said. "But I want to be clear: there are green shoots of hope and... it's never too late to turn the outbreak around."

Updated 30 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 11:30 p.m. ET: 20,014,574 — Total deaths: 734,755 — Total recoveries — 12,222,744Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 11:30 p.m. ET: 5,089,416 — Total deaths: 163,425 — Total recoveries: 1,670,755 — Total tests: 62,513,174Map.
  3. Politics: Trump claims he would have not called for Obama to resign over 160,000 virus deathsHouse will not hold votes until Sept. 14 unless stimulus deal is reached.
  4. Business: Richer Americans are more comfortable eating out.
  5. Public health: 5 states set single-day coronavirus case records last week — A dual coronavirus and flu threat is set to deliver a winter from hell.
  6. Sports: The cost of kids losing gym class — College football is on the brink.
  7. World: Europe's CDC recommends new restrictions amid "true resurgence in cases."
Jul 31, 2020 - Health

Fauci responds to Trump's testing tweet at House coronavirus hearing

Anthony Fauci on Friday told the House's select coronavirus committee that surging infections in the U.S. were caused by several factors, including states reopening without following social-distancing guidelines.

Why it matters: He was responding directly to a tweet from President Trump, who took to the platform during the hearing to repeat his claim that the U.S. has reported the most cases in the world due to increased testing.