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Photo: Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Even before expected new stimulus measures are passed, the U.S. government's annual deficit will likely top $4 trillion this year, analysts at BMO Capital Markets write.

Why it matters: "These are astronomical numbers that will reshape the Treasury market for years, if not decades, to come."

By the numbers: BMO estimates the U.S. will need to borrow more than $4.3 trillion, with the bulk of debt being financed as Treasury bonds in the second and third quarters, totaling roughly $3.5 trillion — $1.9 trillion and $1.6 trillion, in each quarter, respectively.

  • The previous quarterly net issuance record was "a comparatively minimal $569.2 billion" in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Between the lines: The Fed is currently equipped to buy around $2.6 trillion through its quantitative easing program, leaving a $1.7 trillion mountain for the market to swallow, BMO analysts say.

What's next: The Bank of America Global Research expects Congress to pass another large package worth up to $1.5 trillion that "extends on provisions in the CARES Act and provides much needed aid to State and Local Governments."

  • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin confirmed in a recent interview that the White House expects much more debt to come: “This is a war, and we need to win this war and we need to spend what it takes to win the war."

Go deeper

Updated Oct 7, 2020 - Health

World coronavirus updates

Expand chart
Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Axios Visuals

New Zealand now has active no coronavirus cases in the community after the final six people linked to the Auckland cluster recovered, the country's Health Ministry confirmed in an email Wednesday.

The big picture: The country's second outbreak won't officially be declared closed until there have been "no new cases for two incubation periods," the ministry said. Auckland will join the rest of NZ in enjoying no domestic restrictions from late Wednesday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said, declaring that NZ had "beat the virus again."

Updated Oct 16, 2021 - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Vaccines: Booster shots overtake first doses in the U.S. — Pfizer to vaccinate entire Brazilian city as part of study — FDA panel endorses shot of J&J booster for adultsU.S. to lift restrictions for fully vaccinated international travelers on Nov. 8.
  2. Health: New cases down, but the West is at risk — Low vaccination rates exacerbate America's caregiving crisis — COVID is here to stay. So what does "victory" look like? — FDA will review Merck COVID-19 pill.
  3. Politics: NHL announces all but four players have been vaccinated — WHO names new advisory group on COVID origins — Biden admin warns Moderna to "step up" global vaccine supply.
  4. Education: LA extends deadline for school employee vaccinations amid staffing shortage — Parent sues Wisconsin school district after child tests positive — Arizona can't use aid for anti-mask education grants, Treasury says.
  5. Variant tracker: Where different strains are spreading.
Jul 31, 2020 - Health

Fauci responds to Trump's testing tweet at House coronavirus hearing

Anthony Fauci on Friday told the House's select coronavirus committee that surging infections in the U.S. were caused by several factors, including states reopening without following social-distancing guidelines.

Why it matters: He was responding directly to a tweet from President Trump, who took to the platform during the hearing to repeat his claim that the U.S. has reported the most cases in the world due to increased testing.