Data: The Covid Tracking Project; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. are going down — but that’s mainly because coronavirus cases in the New York area are going down.

Why it matters: The country’s hardest-hit region is getting better, and while that’s obviously a good thing, it shouldn’t provide a false sense of security for other regions, many of which are seeing new cases rise sharply.

The big picture: Take New York and New Jersey out of the picture, and the U.S.’ coronavirus cases aren’t going down. They’re holding steady, or slightly increasing.

  • The large number of cases in the New York region drove up the national number of cases in the early going, and so it’s no surprise that big decreases in and around New York would also drive nationwide decreases.

Yes, but: The virus is everywhere now. Improvement in New York doesn’t ensure the outbreak is under control anywhere else.

  • Several populated states — including Texas, Arizona and Oregon — that are seeing their outbreaks get worse.

The bottom line: The nationwide trend of declining cases, that's mainly a reflection of the New York region’s trend, shouldn’t provide a false sense of security elsewhere.

Go deeper

Coronavirus cases flat or growing in 48 states

Data: The COVID Tracking Project, state health departments; Map: Andrew Witherspoon, Sara Wise, Naema Ahmed, Danielle Alberti/Axios

The number of coronavirus cases increased in the vast majority of states over the last week, and decreased in only two states plus the District of Columbia.

Why it matters: This is a grim reminder that no part of the United States is safe from the virus. If states fail to contain their outbreaks, they could soon face exponential spread and overwhelmed health systems.

Cuomo accuses Trump of "enabling" the coronavirus surge

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo accused President Trump at a press briefing Monday of "enabling the virus" by refusing to admit the U.S. is experiencing a real surge of COVID-19 cases.

Why it matters: The alarming rise in coronavirus cases in the U.S. is not due to increased testing, as President Trump has claimed as recently as this past weekend.

Arizona reports record daily coronavirus deaths and hospitalizations

Arizona continues to administer coronavirus tests. Photo: Mark Ralston/AFP via Getty Images

Arizona reported a record 117 new coronavirus deaths, 3,356 total hospitalizations, and 869 ICU beds in use on Tuesday, according to data from Arizona's Department of Health Services.

Why it matters: The number of daily deaths in coronavirus hotspots across the Sunbelt has not reached the levels that New York saw at the peak of its outbreak, likely because many of the new cases are young people with little to no symptoms. But that could start to change as hospitals reach maximum capacity and more vulnerable groups contract the virus.