Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

As the coronavirus pandemic appears to be subsiding in China, it's becoming clear that its targets for the phase one trade deal with the U.S. are unrealistic and there is so far no sign of a plan for renegotiation.

What's happening: White House National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow said Thursday the trade deal was "intact, and China has every intent of implementing it."

  • Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said Friday that Beijing plans to "work with the United States to implement the phase one China-U.S. economic and trade agreement."

Background: China agreed to buy $200 billion more in U.S. goods over the next two years than it bought in 2017.

  • The deal paused further escalation in tariffs and helped spur bullish sentiment (even though it did not remove many of the already implemented tariffs).

Yes, but: While China has significantly stepped up its purchases of U.S. agriculture products so far this year, including corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton, it is far from the pace necessary to meet targets for purchases overall.

  • Thanks in large part to the pandemic shuttering much of its economy for two months, Chinese purchases of U.S. goods are down 23.5% from 2019's levels and China was $21.2 billion behind schedule for the first three months of the year, according to an analysis earlier this month from Panjiva, which is part of S&P Global Market Intelligence.
  • The biggest shortfall is in purchases of U.S. energy products, particularly liquefied natural gas, as energy demand has cratered and prices have dropped.

By the numbers: Given the lull in imports during the January–March period, China would need to buy an "impossible" $2.9 billion of energy per month from April to December, Jason Bordoff, a former senior director at the U.S. National Security Council, writes in Foreign Policy.

  • "[A]t $30 per barrel (the U.S. government’s projected average price for 2020), that’s equivalent to about 3 million barrels of oil per day, or the total of all U.S. daily crude exports in 2019."
  • "That China would buy every last drop of exported U.S. oil is unrealistic enough — but today, that oil is not even available, as U.S. oil exports are projected to fall this year along with the collapse in U.S. shale output, which is projected to drop by roughly one-third over the next year."

One more thing: China also is facing renewed street protests in Hong Kong after passing a controversial national security law that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called a “death knell” for Hong Kong's autonomy.

  • White House National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien said the U.S. is likely to impose sanctions on China if the law is passed.
  • China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that some in the U.S. were pushing relations toward a "new Cold War."

Go deeper: Beijing says U.S. should give up "wishful thinking" of changing China

Go deeper

Biden calls Russia an "opponent," sees China as a "serious competitor"

Joe Biden at a CNN town hall in Scranton, Pennsylvania. Photo courtesy of CNN.

Joe Biden described Russia as an "opponent" of the U.S. at a CNN town hall on Thursday, while identifying China as a "serious competitor."

Flashback: The former vice president opened himself to attacks early in his campaign last year when he said China was "not competition" for the U.S. — a comment that drew criticism from both Democrats and Republicans, per Axios' Jonathan Swan.

Updated 54 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 11:30 a.m. ET: 30,557,899 — Total deaths: 952,981— Total recoveries: 20,822,644Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 11:30 a.m. ET: 6,730,304 — Total deaths: 198,679 — Total recoveries: 2,556,465 — Total tests: 93,150,052Map.
  3. Politics: In reversal, CDC again recommends coronavirus testing for asymptomatic people.
  4. Health: The dwindling chances of eliminating COVID-19 — Massive USPS face mask operation called off — How the American diet worsens COVID-19.
  5. Business: Unemployment drop-off reverses course 1 million mortgage-holders fall through safety net.
  6. Education: At least 42% of school employees are vulnerable.
  7. World: Guatemalan president tests positive for COVID-19.

Trump says Republicans have an "obligation" to fill Ginsburg's seat

President Trump. Photo: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

President Trump wrote in a tweet Saturday morning that Republicans have an "obligation" to fill Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's seat on the Supreme Court following her death Friday.

What he's saying: "We were put in this position of power and importance to make decisions for the people who so proudly elected us, the most important of which has long been considered to be the selection of United States Supreme Court Justices," the president said, tagging the Republican Party. "We have this obligation, without delay!"