Oct 10, 2019 - World

Brexit's future remains murky ahead of a looming Oct. 31 deadline

Felix Salmon

Data: Evening Standard via YouGov; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Brexit omnishambles continues. The chance of Britain agreeing to any kind of a deal with the European Union seems to have fallen to zero, and no one has a clue what will happen after Oct. 17, the date of the last EU summit before the Oct. 31 deadline.

Why it matters: By law, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is going to have to officially ask the EU for yet another extension. Whether he'll do so, however, is unclear; he certainly doesn't want to.

After that, things get even murkier. Will there be a vote of no confidence? (Probably.) Will Johnson lose that vote and resign as prime minister? (Yes and maybe.) Will there be another general election, who will win it, and will Brexit even happen? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The will of the people is clear. Britons voted narrowly to leave the EU in 2016, but in the intervening 3 years, some of them have changed their minds. Plus, a large number of older "Leave" voters have died and a similar number of young "Remainers" have attained voting age.

The bottom line: Brexit remains more likely than not. But it's not what the people want.

Go deeper: Everything you need to know about Brexit

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Brexit's future remains murky ahead of a looming Oct. 31 deadline

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