Data: Evening Standard via YouGov; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Brexit omnishambles continues. The chance of Britain agreeing to any kind of a deal with the European Union seems to have fallen to zero, and no one has a clue what will happen after Oct. 17, the date of the last EU summit before the Oct. 31 deadline.

Why it matters: By law, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is going to have to officially ask the EU for yet another extension. Whether he'll do so, however, is unclear; he certainly doesn't want to.

After that, things get even murkier. Will there be a vote of no confidence? (Probably.) Will Johnson lose that vote and resign as prime minister? (Yes and maybe.) Will there be another general election, who will win it, and will Brexit even happen? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The will of the people is clear. Britons voted narrowly to leave the EU in 2016, but in the intervening 3 years, some of them have changed their minds. Plus, a large number of older "Leave" voters have died and a similar number of young "Remainers" have attained voting age.

The bottom line: Brexit remains more likely than not. But it's not what the people want.

Go deeper: Everything you need to know about Brexit

Go deeper

Ted Cruz defends GOP's expected return to prioritizing national debt

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told "Axios on HBO" on Monday that he wishes reining in the national debt was a higher priority for President Trump.

Why it matters: Trump pledged during the 2016 campaign to reduce the national debt and eliminate it entirely within eight years, though he also deemed himself "the king of debt" and said there were some priorities that required spending. In the fiscal year that ended in September, the deficit reached a record $3.1 trillion.

Federal judge blocks DOJ from defending Trump in Carroll rape defamation case

E. Jean Carroll in Warwick, New York. Photo: Eva Deitch for The Washington Post via Getty Images

A federal judge on Tuesday dismissed the Justice Department's attempted intervention on behalf of President Trump in writer E. Jean Carroll's defamation lawsuit against him, after she accused him of raping her in a dressing room in the mid-1990s.

Catch up quick: The agency argued that Trump was "acting within the scope of his office" as president when he said in 2019 that Carroll was "lying" about her claim.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Politics: Axios-Ipsos poll: Federal response has only gotten worse — The swing states where the pandemic is raging.
  2. Health: The coronavirus is starting to crush some hospitals — 13 states set single-day case records last week.
  3. Business: Where stimulus is needed most.
  4. Education: The dangerous instability of school re-openings.
  5. States: Nearly two dozen Minnesota COVID cases traced to 3 Trump campaign events.
  6. World: Unrest in Italy as restrictions grow across Europe.
  7. Media: Fox News president and several hosts advised to quarantine.