Updated Mar 23, 2018

Two signs Venezuela's Maduro can't hang on forever

Maduro at a military parade in 2017. Photo: JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images

Given the depth and longevity of Venezuela’s political and economic crisis, President Nicolas Maduro, the salsa-loving successor to strongman Hugo Chavez, has clung to power with remarkable tenacity.

He may hang on a while longer, but new evidence emerged this week that makes clear why he can’t survive indefinitely.

  1. New data from OPEC and the International Energy Agency show the decline in Venezuela’s all-important oil production is gathering speed. This problem will have an increasingly dramatic effect on the government’s cash-flow, especially since a considerable amount of the country’s oil is needed at home. Otherwise, it goes toward paying off loans from other countries, or is sold at a deep discount to its ally Cuba.
  2. After purging Rafael Ramirez, former head of state-run oil firm PDVSA, and others a few months ago, Maduro ordered the arrest last week of former Interior Minister Miguel Rodriguez Torres, a former spy chief under Chavez and potential political rival for Maduro. Several military officers have also been arrested. Is Maduro in imminent danger from the ruling elite or the military? From the outside, it’s impossible to know. But purges can sometime create enemies, even where none existed before. 

In short, the cash cow is wasting away, and the risk of dissent within the elite is on the rise. 

Go deeper: Hyperinflation strangles Venezuela's economy.

Sign up for Signal, a twice-weekly newsletter from GZERO Media, a Eurasia Group company.

Go deeper

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 10:30 p.m. ET: 1,273,990 — Total deaths: 69,444 — Total recoveries: 260,247Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 10:30 p.m. ET: 337,310 — Total deaths: 9,634 — Total recoveries: 17,461Map.
  3. Federal government latest: Surgeon general says this week will be "our Pearl Harbor, our 9/11 moment." The USDA confirms that a Bronx zoo tiger tested positive for coronavirus.
  4. 2020 latest: "We have no contingency plan," Trump said on the 2020 Republican National Convention. Biden says DNC may have to hold virtual convention.
  5. States updates: New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said the state is "literally going day-to-day" with supplies.
  6. World update: Queen Elizabeth II urges the British people to confront pandemic with "self-discipline" and "resolve" in rare televised address.
  7. What should I do? Pets, moving and personal health. Answers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingQ&A: Minimizing your coronavirus risk.
  8. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it.

Subscribe to Mike Allen's Axios AM to follow our coronavirus coverage each morning from your inbox.

Intelligence community watchdog suggests Trump fired him for doing his job

Michael Atkinson, Inspector General of the Intelligence Community,at the Capitol in October. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Intelligence Community Inspector General Michael Atkinson suggested in a statement Sunday President Trump fired him for acting impartially in carrying out his duties following a whistleblower complaint.

Why it matters: Atkinson alerted Congress last September to the complaint on Trump's correspondence with Ukraine's president, triggering an inquiry that resulted in the Trump's impeachment.

Go deeperArrowUpdated 23 mins ago - Politics & Policy

U.S. coronavirus updates: Death toll passes 9,500

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Recorded deaths from the novel coronavirus surpassed 9,500 in the U.S. Sunday evening, per Johns Hopkins data. The death toll in the U.S. has risen over 1,000 every day since April 1.

Why it matters: U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams said on Sunday this upcoming week will be "the hardest and saddest week of most Americans' lives" — calling it our "our Pearl Harbor, our 9/11 moment."

Go deeperArrowUpdated 1 hour ago - Health