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President Trump at a MAGA rally. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

President Trump is heading back to Pennsylvania for a "Make America Great Again" rally tonight, and it's all about his base.

Why it matters: Republican candidates are not in the best position here in at least four districts. Democrats view the state, especially after the new congressional maps, as crucial to their path to taking back the House in November. And Trump was the first Republican to win the state of Pennsylvania in a general presidential election since 1988.

The state of play: FiveThirtyEight's latest analysis says four GOP-held districts (the 5th, 6th, 7th and 17th) are nearly guaranteed to flip to Democrats. That's especially bad for incumbent Rep. Keith Rothfus in the 17th district, who's facing Rep. Conor Lamb in the general after the redrawn maps.

  • The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) pulled its planned advertising for Rep. Rothfus from Oct. 8 through Election Day.
  • Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), the GOP super PAC working to keep House control, never reserved ads for Republican House candidates in Pennsylvania's 5th, 6th and 17th districts.
  • The Cook Political Report rates all four of those districts as favorable to Democrats. Two more GOP-held seats in Pennsylvania (in the state's 1st and 16th districts) are also competitive, per Cook.
  • FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich writes: "Republicans are almost certainly correct to give up hope about the Pennsylvania 5th." After the new congressional maps, "it is now 26 percentage points more Democratic-leaning than the country as a whole."
  • As far as the state's Senate race, all recent polling has shown Rep. Lou Barletta trailing behind Sen. Bob Casey by double digits.

Be smart: President Trump knows he needs to get his base excited in places like Pennsylvania, where he won in 2016 despite all odds, but where his party is facing an uphill battle in 2018. Expect to hear more talk about all "Democrats are radical socialists."

The bottom line: It's going to take a lot more than just one Trump rally four weeks before the election for the GOP to turn things around.

Go deeper

Scoop: FDA chief called to West Wing

Stephen Hahn. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows has summoned FDA commissioner Stephen Hahn to the West Wing for a 9:30am meeting Tuesday to explain why he hasn't moved faster to approve the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, two senior administration officials told Axios.

Why it matters: The meeting is shaping up to be tense, with Hahn using what the White House will likely view as kamikaze language in a preemptive statement to Axios: "Let me be clear — our career scientists have to make the decision and they will take the time that’s needed to make the right call on this important decision."

Scoop: Schumer's regrets

Photo illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios. Photo: Mark Wilson/Getty Images   

Chuck Schumer told party donors during recent calls that the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the fact that Cal Cunningham "couldn't keep his zipper up" crushed Democrats' chances of regaining the Senate, sources with direct knowledge of the conversations tell Axios.

Why it matters: Democrats are hoping for a 50-50 split by winning two upcoming special elections in Georgia. But their best chance for an outright Senate majority ended when Cunningham lost in North Carolina and Sen. Susan Collins won in Maine.

Trump's coronavirus adviser Scott Atlas resigns

Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty

Scott Atlas, a controversial member of the White House coronavirus task force, handed in his resignation on Monday, according to three administration officials who discussed Atlas' resignation with Axios.

Why it matters: President Trump brought in Atlas as a counterpoint to NIAID director Anthony Fauci, whose warnings about the pandemic were dismissed by the Trump administration. With Trump now fixated on election fraud conspiracy theories, Atlas' detail comes to a natural end.