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Donald Trump makes his way across the South Lawn. Photo: MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images

We can’t overstate the severity of President Trump’s buyer's remorse from signing last month's spending bill. It could even be a turning point in his presidency, on the issue of immigration and his level of cooperation with Republican leaders; Sources who’ve discussed it with Trump say it freaked him out to see the array of usually friendly faces on Fox News’ opinion shows ripping into him for signing a bill that spent a ton of money, but gave lots away to liberal priorities and did little for his signature promise to build a wall.

Why this matters: Truth is that Trump had little clue what was in the largest spending bill ever passed. Conventional wisdom on Capitol Hill has been that nothing will happen on immigration after the early failure to cut a deal this year. Republican leadership sources were telling us that the court decision to keep DACA alive took away Trump’s deadline and removed the pressure on Congress to act. But now some of those sources are nervous, realizing that Trump won’t let the issue fade into the background.

Trump wants action to toughen immigration laws, and he’s hopping mad that it hasn't happened. He’s grasping at whatever executive tools are available. But watch for him to force action before the end of September, when the government funding expires.

  • A lot could change between now and then. But based on what Trump has been telling confidants, we expect a showdown — and possibly a shutdown — then. 

Be smart: An election eve fracas that forces Republicans to contemplate a government shutdown vs. harsher immigration laws will motivate some Republican voters. But it could further endanger vulnerable Republican incumbents in swing seats, in a campaign year already stacked against them. 

Go deeper

Caitlin Owens, author of Vitals
6 mins ago - Health

The next generation of coronavirus vaccines won't come as quickly

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

A flood of cash from Operation Warp Speed helped coax a slew of biotech companies into the race for a coronavirus vaccine, but the incentives to keep working on new competitors won't be nearly as strong.

Why it matters: That initial flood of cash worked — it delivered multiple, highly effective vaccines in record time. In other disease areas, though, second- and third-generation vaccines usually become the dominant products. And the first COVID-19 vaccines aren't necessarily a great fit for the whole world.

The Biden climate doctrine emerges at summit

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

President Biden's climate summit is highlighting a White House approach that blends diplomacy, executive power, salesmanship and a few threats too.

  • Here are a few pillars of the emerging Biden doctrine.

Biden gets mixed grades on revolving door

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

President Biden is getting mixed marks for his reliance on industry insiders to staff his administration during its first 100 days.

Why it matters: Progressives have leaned on the new president to limit the revolving door between industry and government. A new report from the Revolving Door Project praises him on that front but highlights key hires it deems ethically questionable.

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