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Kiichiro Sato / AP

President Trump's threat to withhold Affordable Care Act payments to insurers shows how he thinks of health care: Everything is negotiable, like it is in a real estate deal. In this case, it's his bargaining chip to get Democrats to negotiate on an ACA replacement plan. But in reality, it could panic insurers and crash the marketplaces.

The president doesn't have strong convictions himself about future directions for health care. But health policy is not like real estate. The partisan divide in health policy is grounded in deeply felt differences on both sides over policy and principle. It's hard to see Trump's approach to deal making working very often in health.

This was why Trump couldn't force a deal with the Freedom Caucus to pass the American Health Care Act in the House; the bill was not conservative enough for the caucus, and in their eyes, it violated their principles and political promises they had made. It is also why using Obamacare's marketplace cost sharing subsidies as a bargaining chip to try to force the Democrats to the table is unlikely to work.

Play that one out for a moment:

  • The subsidies are withheld, or a decision is delayed to the point where insurance companies withdraw.
  • The marketplaces collapse or falter in many states.
  • Some moderate Democrats want to come to the table to rescue the millions who would lose coverage, most likely in the Senate.
  • The right adds their demands as a condition of coming to the table. So does the left.
  • Negotiations quickly snowball, and the entire ACA is opened up for debate once again.
  • Stalemate follows.

There are other reasons why Democrats may not accede to Trump's threat on marketplace subsidies. They may calculate, for example, that the administration will own the fallout for a collapse in the marketplaces, as polls are starting to suggest they will.

Lawmakers are also hard to threaten because most come from safe political districts, as a recent Cook report featured in Axios showed, and they have been getting safer and more polarized.

So, Art of the Deal, meet health care. Whether it's bringing moderate Republicans together with conservatives ones, or Democrats together with Republicans, dealmaking in health care requires the hard, roll-up-your-sleeves work of developing policies that will bridge the partisan and ideological divide.

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CDC director Rochelle Walensky warned states on Monday that "now is not the time" to lift public health restrictions, as the recent dramatic declines in coronavirus cases and deaths "appear to be stalling."

Why it matters: While the average of 70,000 new infections and 2,000 daily deaths is nowhere near the extremely high levels recorded at the start of 2021, the figures are still a poor baseline to "stop a potential fourth surge" — especially with the threat posed by more contagious new variants, Walensky warned.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren introduces "ultra-millionaire" wealth tax bill

Photo: Greg Nash-Pool/Getty Images

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on Monday introduced a bill in the Senate that would impose a new tax on the assets of America's wealthiest individuals.

Why it matters: The plan, which Warren introduced along with Reps. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) is similar to a proposal that was the centerpiece of Warren's campaign for the presidency in 2020.

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Former French President Sarkozy sentenced to jail for corruption

Nicolas Sarkozy, 2011. Photo: XINHUA/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images

A court in Paris on Monday sentenced former French President Nicolas Sarkozy to one year in prison and a two-year suspended sentence after he was found guilty of trying to bribe a magistrate, AP reports.

Driving the news: Sarkozy, who was president from 2007 to 2012, is the first president in France’s modern history to have gone on trial for corruption, per AP. He was charged with corruption and influence-peddling.