Photo: Wang Zhou/AFP/Getty Images

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch's global research team predicted that "a trade war could cause a global recession" should "across-the-board tariffs on US-China trade" come to pass, analysts said in a note to clients Friday morning.

Driving the news: President Trump raised tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% overnight, following through on his threat from earlier this week, and could move to impose new tariffs on all Chinese exports to the U.S.

  • The trade war also would likely bring major changes to the policies of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank.
  • Fund managers have taken notice and pulled $20.5 billion out of equities in the week ending Wednesday, according to BAML's data, and $116 billion out of equity funds so far this year. That matches outflows seen in 2016 and 2008.

Yes, but: Analysts also note an imminent trade deal should allow the global economy to continue to grow above trend — and the market outlook remains that a deal will get done, likely in the next few weeks.

  • Investors have largely been pricing in a positive resolution to the trade war, pushing the S&P 500 up by 15% so far this year. The index rose to an all-time high just last week.

Go deeper: The world can't afford a trade war right now

Go deeper

Updated 2 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9:30 p.m. ET: 31,467,508 — Total deaths: 967,881— Total recoveries: 21,583,915Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9:30 p.m. ET: 6,890,662 — Total deaths: 200,710 — Total recoveries: 2,646,959 — Total tests: 96,612,436Map.
  3. Health: The U.S. reaches 200,000 coronavirus deaths — The CDC's crumbling reputation — America turns against coronavirus vaccine.
  4. Politics: Elected officials are failing us on much-needed stimulus.
  5. Business: Two-thirds of business leaders think pandemic will lead to permanent changes — Fed chair warns economy will feel the weight of expired stimulus.
  6. Sports: NFL fines maskless coaches.
Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
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GoodRx prices IPO at $33 per share, valued at $12.7 billion

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

GoodRx, a price comparison app for prescription drugs at local pharmacies, on Tuesday night raised $1.14 billion in its IPO, Axios has learned.

By the numbers: GoodRx priced its shares at $33 a piece, above its $24-$28 per share offering range, which will give it an initial market cap of around $12.7 billion.

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

House Democrats and Trump admin strike deal to avert government shutdown

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Capitol Hill. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

The House on Tuesday passed legislation to fund the government through Dec. 11, by a vote of 359-57.

Why it matters: The bill will avert a government shutdown when funding expires in eight days. Pelosi and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said earlier that they hoped to hold a vote on the legislation on Tuesday evening.

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