Photo: Wang Zhou/AFP/Getty Images

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch's global research team predicted that "a trade war could cause a global recession" should "across-the-board tariffs on US-China trade" come to pass, analysts said in a note to clients Friday morning.

Driving the news: President Trump raised tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% overnight, following through on his threat from earlier this week, and could move to impose new tariffs on all Chinese exports to the U.S.

  • The trade war also would likely bring major changes to the policies of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank.
  • Fund managers have taken notice and pulled $20.5 billion out of equities in the week ending Wednesday, according to BAML's data, and $116 billion out of equity funds so far this year. That matches outflows seen in 2016 and 2008.

Yes, but: Analysts also note an imminent trade deal should allow the global economy to continue to grow above trend — and the market outlook remains that a deal will get done, likely in the next few weeks.

  • Investors have largely been pricing in a positive resolution to the trade war, pushing the S&P 500 up by 15% so far this year. The index rose to an all-time high just last week.

Go deeper: The world can't afford a trade war right now

Go deeper

Fauci says White House effort to discredit him is "bizarre"

Photo: Joshua Roberts/Getty Images

Anthony Fauci told The Atlantic on Wednesday that efforts by certain White House officials to discredit him are "bizarre" and that it "ultimately hurts the president" to undermine a top health official in the middle of a pandemic.

Driving the news: Fauci's comments come on the heels of a USA Today op-ed by White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, who claimed that Fauci has been "wrong about everything" related to the coronavirus that the two have interacted on. Fauci told The Atlantic: “I can’t explain Peter Navarro. He’s in a world by himself.”

3 hours ago - Health

Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt tests positive for coronavirus

Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) announced on Wednesday he has tested positive for the coronavirus and will self-isolate, Tulsa World reports.

Why it matters: The 47-year-old Stitt is believed to be the first governor in the U.S. to test positive. He attended President Trump's rally in Tulsa last month, which the county's health department director said likely contributed to a surge in cases in the region.

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 2:30 p.m. ET: 13,397,167 — Total deaths: 580,388 — Total recoveries — 7,449,477Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 2:30 p.m. ET: 3,459,053 — Total deaths: 136,900 — Total recoveries: 1,049,098 — Total tested: 41,764,557Map.
  3. States: Alabama's GOP governor issues statewide mask mandate — Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt tests positive.
  4. Politics: Fauci says White House effort to discredit him is "bizarre" — Trump says Navarro shouldn't have written op-ed attacking Fauci.