POTUS arrives in a rainy Osaka. Photo: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images

The centerpiece of this year’s G-20 summit is a bilateral meeting on Saturday between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.

The backdrop: It comes at a crucial tipping point, with Trump threatening tariffs on an additional $300 billion in Chinese imports, a move analysts say could tip the global economy into recession.

  • David Dollar of the Brookings Institution says there's a high likelihood of a "mini-deal" that sees Trump hold off on the tariffs and open up a new period of negotiation. He says a more substantial deal seems far off.
  • The WSJ reports that Xi is arriving in Osaka with a list of preconditions for any deal, including "insisting that the U.S. remove its ban on the sale of U.S. technology" to Huawei.

Trump already met with Australian PM Scott Morrison.

Up on Friday are...

  • Japanese PM Shinzo Abe
  • Indian PM Narendra Modi
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin
  • Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro

And on Saturday...

  • Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

What to watch: There are “two Trump foreign policies,” says Tom Wright of Brookings, noting that “official” U.S. policy often “exists in tension” with the president. At the G-20, Trump will be “front and center.”

  • “When you talk to administration officials they’ll often say these trips are when they feel least in control,” says Wright. And the “possibility of real events driven by the president” is highest.

Go deeper: Putin reflects on Trump ahead of G-20 meeting

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Facebook boycott organizers share details on their Zuckerberg meeting

Facebook is in the midst of the largest ad boycott in its history, with nearly 1,000 brands having stopped paid advertising in July because they feel Facebook hasn't done enough to remove hate speech from its namesake app and Instagram.

Axios Re:Cap spoke with the boycott's four main organizers, who met on Tuesday with CEO Mark Zuckerberg and other top Facebook executives, to learn why they organized the boycott, what they took from the meeting, and what comes next.

Boycott organizers slam Facebook following tense virtual meeting

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Civil rights leaders blasted Facebook's top executives shortly after speaking with them on Tuesday, saying that the tech giant's leaders "failed to meet the moment" and were "more interested in having a dialogue than producing outcomes."

Why it matters: The likely fallout from the meeting is that the growing boycott of Facebook's advertising platform, which has reached nearly 1000 companies in less than a month, will extend longer than previously anticipated, deepening Facebook's public relations nightmare.

Steve Scalise PAC invites donors to fundraiser at Disney World

Photo: Kevin Lamarque-Pool/Getty Images

House Minority Whip Steve Scalise’s PAC is inviting lobbyists to attend a four-day “Summer Meeting” at Disney World's Polynesian Village in Florida, all but daring donors to swallow their concern about coronavirus and contribute $10,000 to his leadership PAC.

Why it matters: Scalise appears to be the first House lawmakers to host an in-person destination fundraiser since the severity of pandemic became clear. The invite for the “Summer Meeting” for the Scalise Leadership Fund, obtained by Axios, makes no mention of COVID-19.