Trump making a statement on how the U.S. will deal with Iran. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

President Trump, facing a May 12 deadline, says he'll announce his plans for the Iran nuclear deal today at 2pm ET.

Why this matters: Trump opposes the deal and at some point he's widely expected to reimpose sanctions designed to restrict Iranian crude sales to other buyers (the U.S. does not import Iranian oil).

The latest: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo indicated this is likely to some of his European colleagues on Friday, Barak Ravid reports.

  • The details will matter a lot, and the Washington Post runs down some options here.
  • Estimates of how many barrels will ultimately come off the market vary greatly too.
  • "Analysts' estimates for the oil supply impact at least six months after the US reimposes sanctions range from zero to 1 million b/d," notes S&P Global Platts.

No matter the decision, there's likely to be little near-term supply effect.

Big picture: “[It] is not clear whether the US will exit the Iran deal altogether or offer a window for negotiation with other signatories. Further, even if sanctions are re-imposed, the impact on the oil market may not be immediate and we tentatively expect that several hundred thousand barrels of Iranian exports could eventually be at risk,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note Tuesday.

Be smart: Barclays analysts say in a note that the Iran deal is ultimately ka-put under Trump but that he has options...

  • A more "disruptive" one where he ends waivers this week and enforces restrictions within six months.
  • A more "benign" one where he renews waivers while restating his opposition to the deal, which buys time for separate nuclear negotiations with North Korea.

The bottom line: Either way, Barclays' Michael Cohen writes, the White House moves will put long-term upward pressure on prices, even if prices fall in the "benign" scenario.

  • "The geopolitical consequences of a possible dismantling of the JCPOA would likely to play a larger and long-lasting role in pushing oil prices higher than short-term policy uncertainty," he writes.

Market uncertainty: In the short term, however, oil prices, which have been trading at their highest levels in well over three years, dropped slightly Monday after Trump announced via Twitter that the decision would come today.

  • The latest: Prices this morning dipped to $70.07 per barrel for WTI and Brent was at $75.56. During Monday's session, WTI settled at $70.73 while Brent traded at over $76.

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Jeff Sessions. Photo: Michael DeMocker/Getty Images

Former Attorney General Jeff Sessions has lost the Republican nomination for Senate to Tommy Tuberville in Alabama in Tuesday night’s primary runoff, AP reports.

Why it matters: Sessions had been the underdog in the race against former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville, who had the backing of President Trump. Tuberville will now face off against Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) in November, who is considered to have one of the most vulnerable Democratic Senate seats in the country.

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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

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  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9 p.m. ET: 3,424,304 — Total deaths: 136,432 — Total recoveries: 1,049,098 — Total tested: 41,764,557Map.
  3. Politics: Biden welcomes Trump wearing mask in public but warns "it’s not enough"
  4. Public health: Four former CDC heads say Trump's undermining of agency puts lives at risk — CDC director: U.S. could get coronavirus "under control" in 4–8 weeks if all wear masks.

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JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. Photo: J. Lawler Duggan/For The Washington Post via Getty Images

Wells Fargo swung to its first loss since the financial crisis — while JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup reported significantly lower profits from a year earlier — as the banks set aside billions of dollars more in the second quarter for loans that may go bad.

Why it matters: The cumulative $28 billion in loan loss provisions that banks have so far announced they’re reserving serves as a signal they’re preparing for a colossal wave of loan defaults as the economy slogs through a coronavirus-driven downturn.