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Trump making a statement on how the U.S. will deal with Iran. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

President Trump, facing a May 12 deadline, says he'll announce his plans for the Iran nuclear deal today at 2pm ET.

Why this matters: Trump opposes the deal and at some point he's widely expected to reimpose sanctions designed to restrict Iranian crude sales to other buyers (the U.S. does not import Iranian oil).

The latest: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo indicated this is likely to some of his European colleagues on Friday, Barak Ravid reports.

  • The details will matter a lot, and the Washington Post runs down some options here.
  • Estimates of how many barrels will ultimately come off the market vary greatly too.
  • "Analysts' estimates for the oil supply impact at least six months after the US reimposes sanctions range from zero to 1 million b/d," notes S&P Global Platts.

No matter the decision, there's likely to be little near-term supply effect.

Big picture: “[It] is not clear whether the US will exit the Iran deal altogether or offer a window for negotiation with other signatories. Further, even if sanctions are re-imposed, the impact on the oil market may not be immediate and we tentatively expect that several hundred thousand barrels of Iranian exports could eventually be at risk,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note Tuesday.

Be smart: Barclays analysts say in a note that the Iran deal is ultimately ka-put under Trump but that he has options...

  • A more "disruptive" one where he ends waivers this week and enforces restrictions within six months.
  • A more "benign" one where he renews waivers while restating his opposition to the deal, which buys time for separate nuclear negotiations with North Korea.

The bottom line: Either way, Barclays' Michael Cohen writes, the White House moves will put long-term upward pressure on prices, even if prices fall in the "benign" scenario.

  • "The geopolitical consequences of a possible dismantling of the JCPOA would likely to play a larger and long-lasting role in pushing oil prices higher than short-term policy uncertainty," he writes.

Market uncertainty: In the short term, however, oil prices, which have been trading at their highest levels in well over three years, dropped slightly Monday after Trump announced via Twitter that the decision would come today.

  • The latest: Prices this morning dipped to $70.07 per barrel for WTI and Brent was at $75.56. During Monday's session, WTI settled at $70.73 while Brent traded at over $76.

Go deeper

Updated 12 hours ago - Sports

The potential GOAT of chess faces intriguing challenger

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The World Chess Championship between Norway's Magnus Carlsen and Russia's Ian Nepomniachtchi began on Friday, 1,094 days after Carlsen won his fourth consecutive title.

Why it matters: During the long, COVID-fueled layoff, chess entered a new era, and with the championship finally here, the age-old game is ready for its close-up.

Department of Interior proposes raising cost of drilling on public lands

A horizontal drilling rig and a pump jack sit on federal land in Lea County, New Mexico. Photo: Callaghan O'Hare/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Oil and gas companies should pay more to drill on federal lands and waters, the Department of the Interior argued in a report released Friday, saying that the current rates were "outdated."

Driving the news: The Department of Interior report said that the federal government's oil and gas leasing and permitting program "fails to provide a fair return to taxpayers, even before factoring in the resulting climate-related costs that must be borne by taxpayers."

13 hours ago - Health

U.S. to restrict air travel from 8 countries over new COVID variant concerns

A COVID-19 vaccine is administered. Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The U.S. will impose new air travel restrictions in response to the Omicron variant, a new COVID strain first detected in South Africa, President Biden announced Friday.

The big picture: Air travel from South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique and Malawi will be restricted starting on Monday.

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