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President Trump in Wilmington, North Carolina, on Sept. 2. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

Half of likely voters surveyed in a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday said that having President Trump in the White House makes them feel less safe.

Why it matters: Trump has campaigned on the promise of  "law and order" by telling voters they "won't be safe in Joe Biden's America."

The big picture: The first batch of national polls released after the Republican and Democratic conventions show the former vice president keeping his national lead.

Remember: Four years after Trump defied expectations set by pollsters and news organizations, the public should have even less confidence that public opinion data can accurately pinpoint a winner, Axios' Sara Kehaulani Goo and David Nather report.

What they're saying: "While the president has been pushing the issue of safety to the center of the presidential campaign, it raises the question: Who most has your back, the current administration or the challengers?" Quinnipiac analyst Tim Malloy noted in a press release.

  • "As racial strife, a seemingly endless pandemic, and an economy on life support unnerve Americans, voters foresee a more reliable lifeline in the Biden Harris ticket."

The bottom line: Wednesday's Quinnipiac poll found that likely voters believe Biden would do a better job than Trump at handling racial inequality, the country's coronavirus response, health care and a crisis in general.

Methodology: 1,081 self-identified likely voters were surveyed over landlines and cellphones from Aug. 28-31, with a margin of error of ± 3.8 percentage points, in Quinnipiac's poll. The adult sample is weighted to recent Census data to match the demographic makeup of the U.S. population.

Go deeper

Progressives shift focus from Biden's Cabinet to his policy agenda

Joe Biden giving remarks in Wilmington, Del., last month. Photo: Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

Some progressives tell Axios they believe the window for influencing President-elect Joe Biden’s Cabinet selections has closed, and they’re shifting focus to policy — hoping to shape Biden's agenda even before he’s sworn in.

Why it matters: The left wing of the party often draws attention for its protests, petitions and tweets, but this deliberate move reflects a determination to move beyond some fights they won't win to engage with Biden strategically, and over the long term.

2 hours ago - Health

Pfizer says COVID vaccine over 90% effective in kids

A health care worker preparing a Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine dose in New York City on Oct. 21. Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Pfizer and BioNTech said their COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective at protecting children between the ages of 5 and 11 from symptomatic infections from the virus, according to a study posted online by the Food and Drug Administration Friday.

Why it matters: Pfizer is seeking an emergency use authorization to vaccinate children — one of the last groups of Americans still largely ineligible to receive a coronavirus vaccine.

Changing the inflation conversation

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Inflation looks like it’ll run hot for longer than plenty of smart people thought it would. The conversation over just how much more Americans will have to pay for their stuff has taken on a new intensity, as supply problems show few signs of fading.

Why it matters: The rate of price growth has remained consistently strong in recent months — a time that some thought would bring cooling prices after an initial reopening spike. What goes on with prices will influence the decisions made by Congress, the Biden Administration, and the Federal Reserve.