Trump greets guests ahead of first lady Melania Trump's address to the Republican National Convention from the Rose Garden at the White House, Aug. 25. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Here are some reasons why President Trump's top advisers say they feel better today than they did three weeks ago.

The state of play: Some early data suggests the Republican National Convention was a success and gave Trump more of a bounce than Joe Biden got from the Democratic National Convention.

  • A new Morning Consult poll has Trump getting a 4 percentage point bounce out of the RNC, whereas Biden got no immediate bounce from the DNC the week earlier. (According to the latest Morning Consult poll, Biden leads Trump 50% to 44% among likely voters nationwide).
  • A new Yahoo News-YouGov poll has Biden's lead over Trump shrinking to 6 percentage points after the RNC — the vice president's smallest lead in months.
  • Fundraising performed well during the RNC. Trump's communications director Tim Murtaugh says the campaign raised $76 million during the RNC.
  • Biden announced he would resume campaign travel after Labor Day, including a trip to Minnesota. Minnesota last voted Republican during Richard Nixon's landslide victory in 1972.
  • COVID-19 cases have been trending down off of the late July peak.

Between the lines: A central goal of the RNC was to win back suburbanites who view Trump as racist and devoid of morals. That's why you saw so many Black speakers offering character testimonials for the president.

  • To that end, Trump aides are encouraged by the Morning Consult poll, which showed that "Trump cut into Biden's lead among voters in the suburbs: Before the convention, Biden led by 14 points (54 percent to 40 percent), but after the convention, he led by 8 points (50 percent to 42 percent)."

Go deeper

The Biden blowout scenario

Joe Biden speaks at an outdoor Black Economic Summit in Charlotte yesterday. Photo: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Joe Biden or President Trump could win the election narrowly — but only one in a popular and electoral vote blowout. 

Why it matters: A Biden blowout would mean a Democratic Senate, a bigger Democratic House and a huge political and policy shift nationwide.

Democrats' mail voting pivot

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Democrats spent the early months of the coronavirus pandemic urging their base to vote absentee. But as threats of U.S. Postal Service delays, Team Trump litigation and higher ballot rejection rates become clearer, many are pivoting to promote more in-person voting as well.

Why it matters: Democrats are exponentially more likely to vote by mail than Republicans this year — and if enough mail-in ballots are lost, rejected on a technicality or undercounted, it could change the outcome of the presidential election or other key races.

Cindy McCain endorses Joe Biden

Cindy McCain. Photo: Ralph Freso/Getty Images)

Cindy McCain formally endorsed Joe Biden for president on Tuesday, calling the former Vice President the only "candidate in this race who stands up for our values as a nation."

Why it matters: McCain, the widow of the late Arizona Sen. John McCain, appeared in a video presentation at last month's Democratic National Convention praising Biden, with whom her husband had a longtime bipartisan friendship. With an official endorsement, she will join a number of prominent people in Republican circles to endorse the Democratic candidate over Trump.

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