The 10-year/3-month Treasury yield curve inverted again on Thursday, but investors may have missed it because it lasted for only minutes. It's the second time this year the yield curve has inverted, which is an accurate recession indicator cited by the Fed.

Be smart: Investors and market analysts have largely written off the inversion as the product of central bank manipulation or a market aberration, and the S&P 500 had rallied 3% since the curve inverted on March 22 to the end of last week, before Trump's Sunday night tariff tweets erased almost all of those gains.

Driving the news: The yield curve has been compressing all week as prospects for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China have diminished.

  • Economists note that the ominous yield curve inversions that have historically accompanied recessions typically last longer than a matter of minutes or days. The curve was inverted in March for only about a week.

History: Ahead of the financial crisis the yield curve inverted in late 2005, 2006 and again in 2007 before the stock market collapsed in 2008.

Go deeper: Will the yield curve lead to recession? It really is different this time

Go deeper

Cities brace for Election Day chaos

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Worst-case scenarios for Election Day: Illegal militias show up fully armed at polling places. People are intimidated from voting. Extremist groups launch violent protests that last for days.

Why it matters: Mayors are playing down the threats — projecting a "we've got this" tone of reassurance — but some law enforcement officials and people who monitor extremists are telling them to be prepared for anything.

Miriam Kramer, author of Space
16 mins ago - Science

The next environmental crisis could be in space

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

An unexpected frontier is facing calls for new environmental regulations and cleanup: outer space.

Why it matters: Space junk clutters up orbits and poses an urgent threat to weather, security, communications and other satellites. Long-term, you can’t live or work in space if trash is literally slamming into you.

45 mins ago - Health

Axios-Ipsos poll: Trump's sickness makes him harder to trust

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Note: ±3.3% margin of error; Chart: Axios Visuals

Large shares of women, seniors and independents now say they're less likely to trust President Trump for accurate information about COVID-19 since he caught it himself, according to the latest installment of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

The big picture: Week 28 of our national survey has most Americans rejecting ideas that Trump has floated around hydroxychloriquine as a virus treatment, how herd immunity works or any imminent availability of a vaccine.