Data: Department of Labor via FRED; Chart: Axios Visuals

Lots of media companies reported that initial jobless claims rose for the first time in 15 weeks last week, but that is only true when looking at the seasonally adjusted data.

Why it matters: Seasonal adjustment has significantly altered the number of claims, with reports showing more than 300,000 additional initial jobless claims during weeks in May.

  • The difference between seasonally adjusted and unadjusted continuing claims was around 2 million for every week in May.

By the numbers: Unadjusted numbers showed an increase in initial claims for the week of July 11, with claims rising to 1.5 million from 1.4 million the previous week.

  • The number of claims, not adjusted, fell last week to 1.4 million.

Of note: The total unadjusted number of people receiving unemployment benefits through all state and federal programs was 31.8 million for the week ending July 4. That represents about 1 in 5 people in the workforce.

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Sep 4, 2020 - Economy & Business

Unreliable data is complicating the unemployment crisis

Data: Department of Labor; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

The U.S. unemployment picture looks to be improving but it's increasingly being clouded by shoddy data, a problem that seems to be getting worse as the pandemic progresses.

What's happening: The number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits rose to 29.2 million for the latest week of data, the Department of Labor announced Thursday.

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
26 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Wall Street fears stimulus is doomed

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The fight over a new Supreme Court justice will take Washington's partisan bickering to a new level and undermine any chance for needed coronavirus relief measures before November's election, Wall Street analysts say.

What we're hearing: "With the passing of Justice Ginsburg, the level of rhetorical heat has increased, if that seemed even possible," Greg Staples, head of fixed income for the Americas at DWS Group, tells Axios in an email.

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 7 a.m. ET: 31,346,086 — Total deaths: 965,294— Total recoveries: 21,518,790Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 6,858,130 — Total deaths: 199,890 — Total recoveries: 2,615,949 — Total tests: 95,841,281Map.
  3. Health: CDC says it mistakenly published guidance about COVID-19 spreading through air.
  4. Media: Conservative blogger who spread COVID-19 misinformation worked for Fauci's agency.
  5. Politics: House Democrats file legislation to fund government through Dec. 11.
  6. World: U.K. upgrades COVID alert level as Europe sees worrying rise in infections — "The Wake-Up Call" warns the West about the consequences of mishandling a pandemic.

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