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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

President Trump's deadline for a TikTok deal is one week from today, as certainty continues to drain from the voices of sources close to the process. The big question now is what happens if no deal is struck.

Between the lines: One possibility is that Trump won't follow through on his threat. This could mean dropping the entire thing altogether, or perhaps saying the parties are close to an agreement but just need a bit more time. Maybe an extra 50 days or so, just to get Trump past Nov. 3.

  • This might depend on who gets into Trump's ear last. For example, former Trump campaign adviser David Urban has been working the White House on TikTok's behalf. Maybe he can sneak by Peter Navarro at 11:59 pm.

The more likely possibility is that Trump follows through, believing the (still questionable) national security rationale and that anti-China tech is a winning political message.

  • It's still unlikely TikTok would go offline next Wednesday, particularly given that it's already fighting Trump's executive order in court. Instead, expect this to become a protracted legal battle, reminiscent of the recording industry vs. Napster.
  • From an executive perspective, the White House would initially use the FTC, although could also leverage Treasury to pressure financial institutions doing business with TikTok. It also may ask Apple and Google to remove TikTok from app stores, although it unlikely to request any sort of forced removal from devices.
  • TikTok did immediately shut down India operations after a government ban, but the U.S.-China conflict is much different than the India-China conflict, which has included recent military skirmishes at the border. As one source explained it to me: To publicly support TikTok in India was to be viewed as unpatriotic, among both politicians and users.

The bottom line: If this doesn't soon get decided in a boardroom, it's going to get decided in a courtroom.

Go deeper

Felix Salmon, author of Capital
Updated Sep 24, 2020 - Economy & Business

Trump risk rises for companies

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Donald Trump fancies himself a businessman — and has given himself a central role in determining the conduct and even the existence of major companies both domestic and foreign.

Why it matters: America has historically been a great place to operate a company under the rule of law, and not be beholden to political whim. Those days seem to be over — at least for companies in the communications industry.

Scoop: 50,000 migrants released; few report to ICE

A law enforcement officer walks to meet migrants crossed the Rio Grande River illegally last month. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images

About 50,000 migrants who crossed the southern border illegally have now been released in the United States without a court date. Although they are told to report to an Immigration and Customs Enforcement office instead, just 13% have showed up so far, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The sizable numbers are a sign of just how overwhelmed some sectors of the U.S.-Mexico border continue to be: A single stretch covering the Rio Grande Valley had 20,000 apprehensions in a week. The figures also show the shortcomings of recent emergency decisions to release migrants.

48 mins ago - World

Scoop: Israel launches maximum pressure campaign against Ben & Jerry's

A Ben & Jerry's store in the Israeli city of Yavne. Photo: Ahmad Gharabli/AFP via Getty

The Israeli government has formed a special task force to pressure Ben & Jerry's ice cream and its parent company Unilever to reverse their decision to boycott Israeli settlements in the West Bank, Israeli officials tell me.

Why it matters: The Israeli government is concerned the move by Ben & Jerry's will encourage other international companies to take similar steps to differentiate between Israel and the West Bank settlements. A classified Foreign Ministry cable, seen by Axios, makes clear the government wants to send a message.