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This week's Senate health bill likely to change next week

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

The Senate health care bill, which Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said will be released on Thursday, will contain optional state waivers of some Affordable Care Act insurance regulations, according to two senior GOP aides. But those waivers may not end up in the final bill — because they could get stripped out for violating Senate budget rules.

Here's why: The Congressional Budget Office has to give its cost estimates for the bill before Republicans can argue their case to the Senate parliamentarian that the waivers should be allowed. (The bill has to comply with Senate budget rules, and she decides whether it does.) And there's a good chance that she'll rule that the waivers, including essential health benefits, have to come out. One of the aides described the parliamentarian as "skeptical."