Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

In what would have been widely dismissed as absurd even a year ago, a mainstream consensus has suddenly swept the world that the core of the global economic system has gone terribly awry, requiring a basic shakeup of capitalism.

The big picture: But the problem may be far more fundamental than an excess of human ruthlessness, as many believe. Instead, experts say, capitalism is under another, more intractable assault — by inexorable long-term population trends that may kill the ability of economies to grow.

  • As we have reported, a reckoning has emerged for capitalism as practiced — people across the U.S., Europe and elsewhere say something is fundamentally wrong with their living standards and the size of companies, and CEOs and politicians suddenly believe that they must act.
  • In an announcement yesterday, 181 of the top U.S. CEOs said they are changing their business objective — rather than solely seeking to satisfy shareholders, they will consider the desires of other constituencies such as communities and employees.
  • And in a report, the WSJ writes that U.S. state attorneys general plan to proceed with a probe of big tech companies for alleged anti-competitive behavior.

But experts suggest that such do-gooderism and investigations will be insufficient to turn the tide against an underlying, almost-unnoticed threat to the economic system that has fueled the entire industrial age.

The new threat: Most of us know that global wealth surged starting in the 19th century. What is less publicized is that the explosion was accompanied by similar breakout in population, and economists connect the two — when population grows, GDP has tended to rise with it. (see chart)

Expand chart
Data: Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2008 AD, Angus Maddison; Chart: Axios Visuals
  • Shrinking, aging: But now, population growth across numerous countries — especially in the West — has stalled. By 2040, demographers say, the number of countries with shrinking populations will rise almost 50% — to 67, from about 46 now. At the same time, by 2050 about a quarter of the world population will be 60 or older.
  • Why that hurts capitalism: Fewer people mean less buying; older people also buy less than younger people. Hence, economies are likely to stagnate, then shrink — a challenge to capitalism, which is predicated on growth in GDP, profits, and wages.
  • "No capitalist economic system operates on the presumption that there will be zero or negative growth. No one deploys investment capital or loans expecting less tomorrow than today," writes Zachary Karabell, president of River Twice Research, in an essay at Foreign Affairs.

What's next: Richard Jackson, president of the Global Aging Institute, tells Axios that, as long as countries do not shut down markets with protectionism, companies will get around the problem for decades by exporting to still-growing populations. Experts note, for instance, that the populations of sub-Saharan Africa and the the Middle East will continue to rise through the century, according to current trends. (Yet eventually, he says, "we will run out of room and have to trade with Mars or something.")

Darrell Bricker, author of "Empty Planet" and global CEO of Ipsos, the polling company, said companies could also do better at marketing to the elderly. "When was the last time you saw an ad for a 70-year-old woman?"

The bottom line: Capitalism is unlikely to vanish. But it could end up looking a lot different.

Aiming for happiness: Ruchir Sharma, chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said that, rather than growth, a better measure of public well-being amid population decline is per-capita income.

  • "Per-capita income correlates very highly with measures such as the happiness index. The happiest countries in the world are also the nations with the highest per capita income, from Switzerland to Norway."
  • "It's only a problem because people can't imagine a capitalism that does anything else [but grow]," said Richard Cincotta, former lead demographer with the National Intelligence Council, and currently a senior fellow at the Stimson Center.

Go deeper

54 mins ago - World

Israeli intel agencies believe Vienna talks will lead to U.S. return to Iran nuclear deal

Photo: DEBBIE HILL/AFP via Getty Images

Israeli military intelligence and senior officials in the Mossad briefed a meeting of the nation's security cabinet that talks in Vienna between Iran and other world powers will lead to the U.S. returning to the 2015 nuclear deal, two officials who attended the meeting told me.

Why it matters: The Israeli government is very concerned about a U.S. return to the nuclear deal and is trying to convince the Biden administration not to take the pressure off the Iranian regime.

Latino community of 13-year-old killed by police in Chicago reels after shooting

A small memorial of flowers and candles to Adam Toledo in Chicago. Photo: Kamil Krzaczynski/Getty Images

Residents of Little Village, a well-known and predominantly Latino neighborhood in Chicago, are grieving the death of Adam Toledo, a 13-year-old Mexican American boy from the neighborhood who was shot and killed by a police officer on March 29, NBC News reports.

Why it matters: Adam Toledo's killing shines a spotlight on police shootings of Latinos, who are killed by law enforcement at the second-highest rate after Black Americans, according to data from the Washington Post.

Super typhoon Surigae explodes to Cat. 5 intensity

Super Typhoon Surigae seen on satellite imagery Saturday morning east of the Philippines. (CIRA/RAMMB)

Super Typhoon Surigae surged in intensity from a Category 1 storm on Friday to a beastly Category 5 monster on Saturday, with maximum sustained winds estimated at 190 mph with higher gusts.

Why it matters: This storm — known as Typhoon Bising in the Philippines — is just the latest of many tropical cyclones to undergo a process known as rapid intensification, a feat that studies show is becoming more common due to climate change. It weakened slightly, to the equivalent of a strong Category 4 storm, on Sunday.