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Expand chart
Data: Congressional Budget Office; Chart: Lazaro Gamio / Axios

"Community-rated premiums would rise over time, and people who are less healthy ... would ultimately be unable to purchase comprehensive nongroup health insurance at premiums comparable to those under current law, if they could purchase it at all."

What it means: In the states that get waivers from the ACA's pricing and benefit rules, people with pre-existing conditions could be priced out of the market. Those states would cover about one sixth of the population.

"People living in states modifying the [essential health benefits] who used services or benefits no longer included in the EHBs would experience substantial increases in out-of-pocket spending on health care or would choose to forgo the services."

What it means: CBO confirmed that premiums would go down in those states, which was one of the GOP's main goals — but the tradeoff is that people could pay more in other ways. Among the benefits that those states might eliminate: "maternity care, mental health and substance abuse benefits, rehabilitative and habilitative services, and pediatric dental benefits."

"CBO and JCT estimate that a few million people would buy policies that would not cover major medical risks."

What it means: In the states with the waivers, some people might buy plans that don't cover a lot — but those plans would be so skimpy that CBO doesn't count them as health coverage.

Go deeper

Study: Fear of debt keeps Latinos out of college

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Fear of never being able to pay off school loans is keeping many young Latinos in the U.S. from going to college or completing a degree, according to a report published in September.

State of play: Latinos tend to have more difficulty repaying school debt than white student borrowers, according to Federal Reserve data, at the same time that they need more loans in order to afford tuition.

28 mins ago - World

Scoop: Biden administration objects to Israeli settlements plan

Israeli PM Naftali Bennett (L) meets with Secretary of State Tony Blinken. Photo: Olivier Douliery/Pool/AFP via Getty

The Biden administration has privately protested to the Israeli government over its plan to approve the planning and construction of more than 3,000 new housing units in the Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, sources briefed on the issue tell me.

Why it matters: The approvals for new homes in the settlements will be the first since President Biden assumed office, and come after Biden and his top aides personally pressed Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to restrain settlement activity and decrease the number of new housing units.

2 hours ago - World

Pentagon warns of ISIS-K capabilities outside Afghanistan

The site of an airstrike conducted by the U.S. against a planner for ISIS-K in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan in August. Photo: Xinhua via Getty Images

U.S. intelligence believes ISIS-K has the "intent" to eventually launch attacks outside of Afghanistan and could be capable of doing so "somewhere between six or 12 months," a top Pentagon official told senators Tuesday.

Why it matters: The U.S. withdrawal and subsequent Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has raised fears that terrorist groups will reconstitute and potentially pose a renewed threat to the U.S. homeland.