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Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski. Photo: Cliff Owen / AP

A new estimate obtained by Axios from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) projects that Alaska, home to key swing vote Sen. Lisa Murkowski, would lose 38% of federal funding for premium subsidies and Medicaid by 2026 under the Graham-Cassidy proposal. John McCain's home state of Arizona would also lose funding (-9% in 2026).

Why it matters: Even though the CMS numbers are rosier than other estimates, they still show states like Alaska and Arizona would be worse off under Graham-Cassidy, making it that much harder to wrangle the votes needed to pass the last-gasp Republican plan.

  • Other estimates: Ohio (-18% by 2026), West Virginia (-23%) and Colorado (-24%), all home to senators who are under pressure over health care, would also lose funding. Sen. Susan Collins' state of Maine would gain 44% by 2026.
  • The latest: With moderate Republican Murkowski as potentially the crucial vote, Sens. Lindsey Graham and Bill Cassidy are reportedly considering three new Alaska-specific changes to the proposal to win her vote. These numbers won't help the sales pitch.

Worth noting: It's unclear whether the estimate includes traditional Medicaid funding.

Go deeper: The full estimates.

Go deeper

Mayors press Biden to adopt progressive immigration agenda

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

A coalition of nearly 200 mayors and county executives is challenging Joe Biden and the incoming Congress to adopt a progressive immigration agenda that would give everyone a pathway to citizenship.

Why it matters: The group's goals, set out in a white paper released today, seem to fall slightly to the left of what the president-elect plans to propose on Inauguration Day — though not far — and come at a time of intense national polarization over immigration.

Caitlin Owens, author of Vitals
17 mins ago - Health

Demand for coronavirus vaccines is outstripping supply

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Now that nearly half of the U.S. population could be eligible for coronavirus vaccines, America is facing the problem experts thought we’d have all along: demand for the vaccine is outstripping supply.

Why it matters: The Trump administration’s call for states to open up vaccine access to all Americans 65 and older and adults with pre-existing conditions may have helped massage out some bottlenecks in the distribution process, but it’s also led to a different kind of chaos.

Woman who allegedly stole laptop from Pelosi's office to sell to Russia is arrested

Photo: FBI

A woman accused of breaching the Capitol and planning to sell to Russia a laptop or hard drive she allegedly stole from Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office was arrested in Pennsylvania's Middle District Monday, the Department of Justice said.

Driving the news: Riley June Williams, 22, is charged with illegally entering the Capitol as well as violent entry and disorderly conduct. She has not been charged over the laptop allegation and the case remains under investigation, per the DOJ.