Money, weapons and geopolitics are colliding all over the world as Russia — the world's second-biggest arms exporter — seeks to narrow the gap with the U.S.
Snapshot: Standing beside Vladimir Putin earlier this month in Ankara, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said the purchase of an advanced Russian S-400 air defense system was a “done deal,” despite protests from Turkey’s NATO allies. Putin said delivery of the system would actually be accelerated.
The big picture: As in the Cold War, choosing to buy arms from Russia or the U.S. is "absolutely a political statement," says Rachel Stohl of the Stimson Center.
For Turkey and Erdoğan, this is an opportunity "to leverage intimate ties with Russia to gain more from the U.S., particularly in Syria," according to Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Meanwhile, Russia exported $1.1 billion in arms last year to Egypt, historically a top U.S. customer, per SIPRI. Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is hedging his bets between Moscow and Washington, and he's not the only leader in the region doing so.
Russia is making some inroads across the Middle East, but “competition in the region is much more intense than in Asia,” by far "the most important export market for Russian arms,” according to a Chatham House report. 56% of Russia’s arms exports since 2000 went to India or China.
Stronger U.S.-India ties pose a threat to Russia’s dominance in that market, but those ties have also pushed Pakistan and Russia closer together. The last two years were the first in more than a decade that Pakistan imported more Russian than American weapons.
The bottom line:
Weapons exports are “one of the few areas of manufacturing in which Russia can be considered a world leader,” and Moscow’s “efforts to cultivate new relationships across the world... have proven successful,” per Chatham House.
The U.S., which exported to twice as many countries as Russia last year, has some advantages, according to Stohl: “Russia doesn’t have all of the systems” wealthy countries like Saudi Arabia (the top U.S. customer) want, and many countries are afraid to jeopardize their relationships with Washington.
Russian arms, however, come with fewer strings attached.
Extremist with ties to 9/11 captured by U.S.-backed Syrian forces
Fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces stand guard on a rooftop in Raqa on October 20, 2017. Photo: Bulent Kilic/AFP/Getty Images
Mohammed Haydar Zammar, a Syrian-born German extremist who is believed to have links to the 9/11 attacks, is being questioned by the Syrian Democratic Forces, NBC reported Wednesday, citing an AFP report, and CNN confirmed on Thursday.
Why it matters: Per CNN, Zammar "is believed to have recruited some of the perpetrators" for the 9/11 attacks. Zammar was "a well-known figure in the Muslim community (and to German and U.S. intelligence agencies by the late 1990s)," the 9/11 Commission Report stated, according to NBC. Pentagon spokesman Eric Pahon told CNN that Zammar "was captured more than a month ago by SDF partners as part of their ongoing operations to defeat ISIS inside Syria."
Mike Pompeo's secret visit to Pyongyang is the latest in a series of dramatic events in the run-up to the summit between President Trump and Kim Jong-un. It’s almost certainly not the last.
The big picture: "Part of this is normal, but we've got a wacky situation here," says Jim Walsh, an international security expert at MIT who has taken part in previous negotiations with North Korea. When it comes time to present a "final package," he adds, "surprises won't fly."
Surprise #1: Trump accepts Kim’s invitation
Trump stunned just about everyone on March 8 with his immediate acceptance of Kim's invitation to meet.
Between the lines: The news shocked the Japanese, as did the fact that South Korean officials announced the news from the White House.
Surprise #2: Kim rolls into Beijing
The Chinese had also been surprised by the news. 17 days later, an armored train arrived in Beijing and, after it departed, the Chinese confirmed that Kim Jong-un had been on board.
Between the lines: The Trump administration appeared "caught off guard" by Kim’s visit to Beijing, "though not terribly surprised by the outcome,” Chris Johnson, a former top CIA China analyst now at CSIS tells Axios. Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said Chinese officials briefed the White House — after the visit.
Surprise #3: CIA chief heads to PyongyangThe Washington Post reported Tuesday that the CIA Director and Secretary of State-designate was dispatched to Pyongyang on Easter weekend to meet with Kim. The news was leaked to bolster Pompeo’s standing ahead of his confirmation battle, Politico reports and Axios’ Jonathan Swan has confirmed.
Johnson says Pompeo’s visit was likely motivated by the need "to verify at a very high level that denuclearization was on the table.”
According to Walsh, “each side would have gotten some idea of what the other side wants,” without tipping their hands on negotiations.
Between the lines:
“It’s not the first time the U.S. has done this,” says Yuki Tatsumi, a former Japanese diplomat now at the Stimson Center, noting that Henry Kissinger, for example, made secret trips to China during the Nixon administration.
This time was different, though, as most steps in this process have been. “You can have a secret meeting, but if it’s a secret meeting you don’t talk about it afterwards,” Walsh says.
The White House and State Department wouldn’t say whether there was any coordination with Tokyo or Seoul ahead of Pompeo’s trip. The news certainly didn’t reach some diplomats in D.C., who were sent scrambling by the news.
If there was any coordination, Tatsumi says, it was probably with South Korean intelligence. As for the Chinese, Johnson says, “I would highly doubt they were consulted, but I'm sure they were informed," by the North Koreans, probably shortly before Pompeo’s arrival.
