Nov 1, 2018

The changes at stake ahead of the 2018 midterm elections

Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

The collision of demographics, increased party ideology and broader trends like #MeToo has the 2018 midterms set to make history, and the point of that spear will be in the House.

Driving the news: Democrats have been increasingly diverse in recent decades, a trend that has gradually been matched with more political representation.

At stake on Tuesday:

  • The share of white men among House Democrats could fall to a record low of 37%, Cook Political Report analyst David Wasserman told the AP.
  • "[F]or the first time, less than half the Democratic candidates for the House are white men, and the Democrats are poised to send the first Native American and Muslim-American women to the House." [AP]

Between the lines, via Axios' Alexi McCammond: The Democratic Party says more explicitly and specifically that they care about identity and diversity and representation, so they tend to have more resources to try to fix these imbalances.

By the numbers, per the AP.

  • "Democrats have nominated more than 180 female [House] candidates... But while voters could send more than 100 of them to victory, Republicans could have fewer women than now in their ranks next year due to retirements and tough races, according to election analysts.
  • "Overall, nearly 9 in 10 House Republicans will be white men when the new Congress convenes in January."
  • "House Republicans now count just over a dozen minority members... Meanwhile, African-American, Latino and Asian-American lawmakers make up almost half the House Democratic caucus."

What's next: Roughly 700 millennials, mostly Democrats, are running for the ~6,000 state legislative seats up in 2018, Axios' Khorri Atkinson reports.

Go deeper

White House projects 100,000 to 240,000 U.S. coronavirus deaths

President Trump said at a press briefing on Tuesday that the next two weeks in the U.S. will be "very painful" and that he wants "every American to be prepared for the days that lie ahead," before giving way to Deborah Birx to explain the models informing the White House's new guidance on the coronavirus.

Why it matters: It's a somber new tone from the president that comes after his medical advisers showed him data projecting that the virus could kill 100,000–240,000 Americans — even with strict social distancing guidelines in place.

Go deeperArrowUpdated 21 mins ago - Health

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 6 p.m. ET: 850,583 — Total deaths: 41,654 — Total recoveries: 176,714.
  2. U.S.: Leads the world in confirmed cases. Total confirmed cases as of 6 p.m. ET: 184,183 — Total deaths: 3,721 — Total recoveries: 6,043.
  3. Business updates: Should you pay your rent or mortgage during the coronavirus pandemic? Find out if you are protected under the CARES Act.
  4. Public health updates: More than 400 long-term care facilities across the U.S. report patients with coronavirus — Older adults and people with underlying health conditions are more at risk, new data shows.
  5. Federal government latest: The White House and other institutions are observing several models to better understand and prepare cities for when the coronavirus is expected to peak in the U.S.
  6. U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt: Captain of nuclear aircraft carrier docked in Guam pleaded with the U.S. Navy for more resources after more than 100 members of his crew tested positive.
  7. What should I do? Answers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingQ&A: Minimizing your coronavirus risk.
  8. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it.

Subscribe to Mike Allen's Axios AM to follow our coronavirus coverage each morning from your inbox.

Paying rent in a pandemic

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

For many people who've lost jobs or income because of the coronavirus pandemic, tomorrow presents a stressful decision: Do you pay your rent or mortgage?

Why it matters: The new CARES Act that was signed by President Trump on Friday protects homeowners and renters who are suffering from the response to the coronavirus pandemic — but it's not “a one-size-fits-all policy rulebook,” a congressional aide tells Axios.

Go deeperArrow2 hours ago - Health