Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

The collision of demographics, increased party ideology and broader trends like #MeToo has the 2018 midterms set to make history, and the point of that spear will be in the House.

Driving the news: Democrats have been increasingly diverse in recent decades, a trend that has gradually been matched with more political representation.

At stake on Tuesday:

  • The share of white men among House Democrats could fall to a record low of 37%, Cook Political Report analyst David Wasserman told the AP.
  • "[F]or the first time, less than half the Democratic candidates for the House are white men, and the Democrats are poised to send the first Native American and Muslim-American women to the House." [AP]

Between the lines, via Axios' Alexi McCammond: The Democratic Party says more explicitly and specifically that they care about identity and diversity and representation, so they tend to have more resources to try to fix these imbalances.

By the numbers, per the AP.

  • "Democrats have nominated more than 180 female [House] candidates... But while voters could send more than 100 of them to victory, Republicans could have fewer women than now in their ranks next year due to retirements and tough races, according to election analysts.
  • "Overall, nearly 9 in 10 House Republicans will be white men when the new Congress convenes in January."
  • "House Republicans now count just over a dozen minority members... Meanwhile, African-American, Latino and Asian-American lawmakers make up almost half the House Democratic caucus."

What's next: Roughly 700 millennials, mostly Democrats, are running for the ~6,000 state legislative seats up in 2018, Axios' Khorri Atkinson reports.

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Gulf Coast braces for Zeta after storm strengthens into hurricane

Hurricane Zeta's forecast path. Photo: National Hurricane Center

Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) declared a state of emergency Monday as Zeta strengthened into a hurricane and threatened Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as it moved towards the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The state of play: Zeta was expected to make landfall on the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night, bringing with it a "dangerous storm surge" and "heavy rainfall" as it moved into the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Service said.

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Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Politics: The swing states where the pandemic is raging — Pence no longer expected to attend Barrett confirmation vote after COVID exposure.
  2. Health: 13 states set single-day case records last week
  3. Business: Where stimulus is needed most.
  4. Education: The dangerous instability of school re-openings.
  5. World: Restrictions grow across Europe.
  6. Media: Fox News president and several hosts advised to quarantine.

Supreme Court rejects request to extend Wisconsin absentee ballot deadline

Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

The Supreme Court in a 5-3 decision Monday rejected an effort by Wisconsin Democrats and civil rights groups to extend the state's deadline for counting absentee ballots to six days after Election Day, as long as they were postmarked by Nov. 3.

Why it matters: All ballots must now be received by 8 p.m. on Election Day in Wisconsin, a critical swing state in the presidential election.