While not yet sounding an alarm, top strategists at BlackRock are starting to worry about the possibility of U.S. stagflation — high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand.

What they're saying: Mike Pyle, chief investment strategist for the BlackRock Investment Institute, sees inflation as set to pick up "thanks to more tariffs and faster wage growth in the face of a tight labor market," he says in a note to clients.

  • "A mix of lower growth and higher inflation complicates the Fed’s effort to achieve maximum employment and stable prices."

Be smart: Despite a recent armistice between the U.S. and China on the trade war, BII strategists believe the tensions are underpinned by "structural" issues, reducing the likelihood of a meaningful deal and keeping the trade war brewing for some time.

  • "U.S. growth could fall materially below trend in coming quarters," Pyle says. And with China slowing and Europe struggling, the U.S. is "unlikely to get much help from the rest of the world."

The bottom line: "Trade tensions pose the risk of slowing growth and rising inflation — a potential threat to stock and bond markets alike."

Go deeper: Recession fears are making companies more responsible

Go deeper

Cities brace for Election Day chaos

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Worst-case scenarios for Election Day: Illegal militias show up fully armed at polling places. People are intimidated from voting. Extremist groups launch violent protests that last for days.

Why it matters: Mayors are playing down the threats — projecting a "we've got this" tone of reassurance — but some law enforcement officials and people who monitor extremists are telling them to be prepared for anything.

Miriam Kramer, author of Space
14 mins ago - Science

The next environmental crisis could be in space

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

An unexpected frontier is facing calls for new environmental regulations and cleanup: outer space.

Why it matters: Space junk clutters up orbits and poses an urgent threat to weather, security, communications and other satellites. Long-term, you can’t live or work in space if trash is literally slamming into you.

44 mins ago - Health

Axios-Ipsos poll: Trump's sickness makes him harder to trust

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Note: ±3.3% margin of error; Chart: Axios Visuals

Large shares of women, seniors and independents now say they're less likely to trust President Trump for accurate information about COVID-19 since he caught it himself, according to the latest installment of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

The big picture: Week 28 of our national survey has most Americans rejecting ideas that Trump has floated around hydroxychloriquine as a virus treatment, how herd immunity works or any imminent availability of a vaccine.