Sep 17, 2019

Top strategists warn about stagflation risk as China trade tensions remain

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Why America isn't at full employment

Data: FacetSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Fed has two jobs: Keeping inflation at 2%, and ensuring full employment. But what does full employment mean? According to Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari, we're clearly not there yet — despite the fact that the unemployment rate is at a 50-year low of 3.5%.

Why it matters: If we're not at full employment, and inflation remains below the 2% target rate (as it does), then the Fed has little choice but to step on the gas.

Go deeperArrowOct 15, 2019

Podcast: A new threat to U.S. manufacturing

Foreign companies have boosted U.S. manufacturing employment, but the trade war with China threatens that growth.

The bears are in control now

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

For much of the year, equity bulls bought stocks on even the faintest hint of good news about companies or the economy, pushing U.S. indexes to new all-time highs despite a slowing economy and negligible earnings growth.

Why it matters: But with the S&P 500 approaching 20% gains for the year and no real signs of growth to be found, a spirit of pessimism and increased caution looks to be gripping the market.

Go deeperArrowOct 2, 2019