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Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell at a news conference on May 1, 2019. Photo: Mark Wilson/Getty Images

Ratings agency S&P Global is now joining the market chorus — it expects at least one interest rate cut from the Fed this year, citing "increasing headwinds."

Where it stands: Earlier this year S&P predicted the Fed would hold rates steady through 2019, but said Wednesday it expects the overwhelmingly negative impacts from tariffs to put enough stress on the U.S. economy that the Fed will be forced to act.

What's happening: "[T]he winds have shifted, with the Trump Administration fighting trade battles on more than one front, which we think could disrupt global supply chains and weigh on business and consumer confidence," analysts at the agency said in a statement.

  • S&P also noted that the outlook for the U.S. economy has worsened since January, "with signs that more businesses have closed their wallets and investor skittishness feeding into financial market unrest."

Between the lines: The "deceptively strong" GDP reading in the first quarter masked a number of weakening signals on the economy, analysts said, while May's "disappointing" jobs report could be warning of a natural pullback for the economy.

  • S&P expects the Fed to signal at its June policy meeting next week that it intends to begin cutting rates, with an expected cut in September.

A warning: "The Fed may want to move sooner and more quickly than it has in the past."

Go deeper: Why the market shouldn't be excited about Fed rate cuts

Go deeper

Mike Allen, author of AM
2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Biden's "overwhelming force" doctrine

President-elect Biden arrives to introduce his science team in Wilmington yesterday. Photo: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

President-elect Biden has ordered up a shock-and-awe campaign for his first days in office to signal, as dramatically as possible, the radical shift coming to America and global affairs, his advisers tell us. 

The plan, Part 1 ... Biden, as detailed in a "First Ten Days" memo from incoming chief of staff Ron Klain, plans to unleash executive orders, federal powers and speeches to shift to a stark, national plan for "100 million shots" in three months.

Off the Rails

Episode 2: Barbarians at the Oval

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

Beginning on election night 2020 and continuing through his final days in office, Donald Trump unraveled and dragged America with him, to the point that his followers sacked the U.S. Capitol with two weeks left in his term. This Axios series takes you inside the collapse of a president.

Episode 2: Trump stops buying what his professional staff are telling him, and increasingly turns to radical voices telling him what he wants to hear. Read episode 1.

President Trump plunked down in an armchair in the White House residence, still dressed from his golf game — navy fleece, black pants, white MAGA cap. It was Saturday, Nov. 7. The networks had just called the election for Joe Biden.

Fringe right plots new attacks out of sight

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Domestic extremists are using obscure and private corners of the internet to plot new attacks ahead of Inauguration Day. Their plans are also hidden in plain sight, buried in podcasts and online video platforms.

Why it matters: Because law enforcement was caught flat-footed during last week's Capitol siege, researchers and intelligence agencies are paying more attention to online threats that could turn into real-world violence.

You’ve caught up. Now what?

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