Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

It's not a U, it's not an L, and it's definitely not an I. America's economic recovery from the coronavirus shutdown has already started. In economists' shorthand, that means it's a V (a sharp rebound), a W (a nasty double-dip), or, most likely, something in between.

Why it matters: The shape of the recovery will directly affect the future of millions of unemployed Americans. It will also determine whether small business owners, in particular, will be able to restart their entrepreneurial careers after being forced to shut down during the pandemic.

Context: One big fear in March and April was that America would see no real economic recovery so long as the pandemic remained out of control. In May, however, we saw more than 40,000 deaths from COVID-19 — and we had the largest monthly employment gain in American history, with 2.5 million new jobs being created.

  • Be smart: The consensus among economists is now that we'll see a "reverse radical" recovery. Think of a backwards square-root sign, where there's a sharp drop, a relatively small bounce back, and then a long period of subpar growth.

The best-case scenario is a V. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, for one, is sure the economic recovery will last: "I think we're off to the races in what will be a very strong V-shaped recovery," he said this week.

  • The case for a V is based on the idea that even if the number of new coronavirus cases is remaining stubbornly high, the number of new coronavirus deaths is falling steadily. So long as that trend remains in place, the U.S. economy is likely to continue to move back toward some semblance of normality.

The worst-case scenario would be a "W." Federal Reserve vice chair Randal Quarles is telling banks to prepare for "a W-shaped double dip recession with a short-lived recovery followed by a severe drop in activity later this year due to a second wave of containment measures."

  • While virus-related lockdowns remain the biggest risk, economists also worry about the fact that May's surprisingly good economic data were driven in large part by hundreds of billions of dollars of temporary government stimulus.
  • The $1,200 checks, along with an extra $600 per week for anybody claiming unemployment assistance, actually caused personal incomes to rise in April.
  • If and when the free money runs out, the mini-boom could be over. At that point we could fall back into a "W-shaped" recovery — or even a double-dip recession.

By the numbers: According to BofA Securities' global fund manager survey, the proportion of investors expecting a V-shaped recovery rose from 10% in April to 18% in May — but was still dwarfed by the proportion expecting a U-shaped or W-shaped recovery, which fell from 75% in April to 64% in May.

Reality check: Many major industries, from live entertainment to air travel and even in-person shopping, remain in a dire economic condition. They still have no real visibility for when or how they might return to a pre-pandemic state of health.

  • International trade is looking very weak. Borders went up quickly once the virus hit, and will go down much more slowly.
  • State and local governments also seem certain to lay off millions more workers in the coming months, given the unprecedented magnitude of their budget crunch.

The bottom line: "We don't have a word for being in a depressed economy that's growing," says Heidi Shierholz, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.

  • Even a fast recovery will take place amid double-digit unemployment rates and the shuttering of millions of small businesses. That's nothing to celebrate.

Go deeper

The price of Washington's stimulus failure

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

America's elected representatives have failed America.

Why it matters: The bipartisan inability to deliver economic stimulus could impede economic growth for months to come. It will create widespread damage across America — from small businesses to large industries to schools and day cares — and leave many Americans without jobs or homes.

Grand jury indicts ex-officer who shot Breonna Taylor on wanton endangerment

A memorial to Breonna Taylor in downtown Louisville, Kentucky on Sept. 23. Photo: Jeff Dean/AFP via Getty Images

A grand jury has indicted Brett Hankison, one of the Louisville police officers who entered Breonna Taylor's home in March and shot her at least eight times, on three counts of wanton endangerment.

The state of play: None of the three officers involved in the botched drug raid will face charges related to the actual death of Taylor, such as homicide or manslaughter. Two officers were not charged at all.

FDA chief vows agency will not accept political pressure on coronavirus vaccine

Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn promised that "science will guide our decision" for a coronavirus vaccine at a Senate hearing on Wednesday.

Why it matters: More Americans are expressing doubt about a first-generation vaccine, despite President Trump's efforts to push an unrealistic timeline that conflicts with medical experts in his administration.

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