AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

If the Senate's health care bill dies, moderate Republicans will likely be the ones who kill it. And the changes released yesterday won't do much to allay their biggest concerns.

Conservatives won some major policy changes yesterday, in the form of Ted Cruz's consumer-choice proposal. Moderates didn't: The bill's Medicaid cuts are just as deep, and the latest version didn't do much to cover more people or make coverage more affordable to older, sicker consumers.

So, what did the moderates get? Money:

  • $45 billion to fight the opioid crisis
  • An additional $70 billion to help stabilize insurance markets
  • One particular funding formula was also revised to benefit just one state: Alaska, home to undecided Sen. Lisa Murkowski. The change could net Alaska nearly $750 million over the next 10 years, according to Bloomberg's math.

"We're making it rain on them," one senior GOP aide told my colleague Caitlin Owens.

This is what worked in the House: Conservatives won structural changes to the Affordable Care Act's insurance regulations, and some additional money for states brought moderates on board. Will it work in the Senate?

  • Sens. Susan Collins and Rand Paul said definitively that they'd vote against bringing the bill to the floor, leaving Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell with no more votes to spare.
  • Sen. Mike Lee said he's undecided, but if he follows Cruz, the ball would be in moderates' court.
  • Other than Collins, the rest of the bill's moderate critics either stayed silent or said they're waiting for a score from the Congressional Budget Office.

What's next: We're expecting that CBO score early next week, though it may not include the biggest changes announced yesterday —Cruz's consumer-choice proposal. Even so, GOP leaders say the plan is still to hold a vote next week. Just like the plan from two weeks ago. Either way, expect plenty more haggling and last-minute changes over the next few days.

If the Senate takes up the bill: Watch Sen. John McCain. He says he's not happy because he didn't get his amendments to protect the Arizona Medicaid program. He'll try to change that.

Go deeper

Deadly Hurricane Zeta pummels Alabama after Louisiana landfall

A satellite image of Hurricane Zeta. Photo: National Hurricane Center/NOAA

Hurricane Zeta has killed at least one person after a downed power line electrocuted a 55-year-old in Louisiana as the storm moved into Alabama overnight.

What's happening: After "battering southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi," it began lashing Alabama late Wednesday, per the National Hurricane Center.

Taiwan reaches a record 200 days with no local coronavirus cases

Catholics go through containment protocols including body-temperature measurement and hands-sanitisation before entering the Saint Christopher Parish Church, Taipei City, Taiwan, in July. Photo: Ceng Shou Yi/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Taiwan on Thursday marked no locally transmitted coronavirus cases for 200 days, as the island of 23 million people's total number of infections reported stands at 550 and the COVID-19 death toll at seven.

Why it matters: Nowhere else in the world has reached such a milestone. While COVID-19 cases surge across the U.S. and Europe, Taiwan's last locally transmitted case was on April 12. Experts credit tightly regulated travel, early border closure, "rigorous contact tracing, technology-enforced quarantine and universal mask wearing," along with the island state's previous experience with the SARS virus, per Bloomberg.

Go deeper: As Taiwan's profile rises, so does risk of conflict with China

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Politics: Biden ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan as cases surge in the Midwest.
  2. Health: Fauci says U.S. may not return to normal until 2022 — Trump's testing czar: Surge "is real" and not just caused by more tests Some coronavirus survivors have "autoantibodies."
  3. Business: Consumer confidence sinking Testing is a windfall.
  4. World: Europe faces "stronger and deadlier" wave France imposes lockdown Germany to close bars and restaurants for a month.
  5. Sports: Boston Marathon delayed MLB to investigate Dodgers player who joined celebration after positive COVID test.

Get Axios AM in your inbox

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!