Get the latest market trends in your inbox

Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with the Axios Markets newsletter. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Minneapolis-St. Paul

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa-St. Petersburg news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa-St. Petersburg

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

A self-driving electric vehicle on a test drive in Tokyo. Photo: David Mareuil/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

A shift to connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) could reduce the energy consumed by the U.S. light-duty fleet by 60% — or it could triple it, according to National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates. The range stems partly from differing expectations of the engineering performance of CAVs and their associated infrastructure, but much more so from their anticipated levels of use.

Why it matters: CAVs are seen by some to herald a lower-energy future, but they could actually have the opposite effect if their convenience spurs more driving.

Over 80% of the variable costs of driving are the in the value of the driver’s time. CAV travelers will reclaim part of that value by web surfing, working or sleeping. This reduced price will likely increase travel. Ultra-long commutes will become reasonable when drivers can simply hit the road at 4 a.m. and return to sleep for the ride to work. And when CAVs operate while empty, the traveler’s time is eliminated, enabling such uses as sending the car home to avoid parking costs downtown.

Counteracting these travel-inducing effects demands policies to support shared deployment in the form of on-demand transit, which could mix public and private elements, rather than a CAV in every garage. Vehicle sharing favors close-in areas, with their lower demand for driving, because their trip density allows vehicles immediate return to service with other travelers. But even a self-driving Lyft or Uber system can swamp congested streets while leaving transportation gaps elsewhere.

The big picture: A transit system that integrates trains, buses and on-demand CAVs is the best scenario for energy consumption. But such a system requires proactive planning, rather than a default to the car-oriented policies inherited from an earlier era.

Jonathan Levine is a professor of urban and regional planning at the University of Michigan.

Go deeper

7 mins ago - Health

Standardized testing becomes another pandemic victim

Photo: Edmund D. Fountain for The Washington Post via Getty

National standardized reading and math tests have been pushed from next year to 2022, the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) announced Wednesday.

Why it matters: There’s mounting national evidence that students are suffering major setbacks this year, with a surge in the number of failing grades.

31 mins ago - World

European countries extend lockdowns

A medical worker takes a COVID-19 throat swab sample at the Berlin-Brandenburg Airport. Photo by Maja Hitij via Getty

Recent spikes in COVID-19 infections across Europe have led authorities to extend restrictions ahead of the holiday season.

Why it matters: "Relaxing too fast and too much is a risk for a third wave after Christmas," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

1 hour ago - Health

Africa CDC: Vaccines likely won't be available until Q2 of 2021

Africa CDC director Dr. John Nkengasong. Photo: Mohammed Abdu Abdulbaqi/Anadolu Agency via Getty

Africa may have to wait until the second quarter of 2021 to roll out vaccines, Africa CDC director John Nkengasong said Thursday, according to the Associated Press.

Why it matters: “I have seen how Africa is neglected when drugs are available,” Nkengasong said.