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Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

Driving the news: The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s.

  • This week, the International Energy Agency will unveil its closely watched annual World Energy Outlook.
  • IEA's three main scenarios project future demand through 2040 based on existing policies, on announced plans, and on a world with policies aligned with the Paris agreement goals.

Why it matters: The timing of peak demand has big repercussions for the planet, and the strategy and future of oil producers.

The big picture: The prospectus makes the case that Aramco is very nicely positioned to increase market share in a world where global thirst for oil is flat or declining.

  • They argue that their comparatively low per-barrel production costs and emissions give them an edge.
  • The 658-page document sees Saudi crude, condensate and natural gas liquid supplies growing through at least 2050.

But, but, but: Bloomberg's Liam Denning connects the dots between the upcoming Aramco IPO and the flop of Brazil's big offshore auction late last week, which he notes is a sign of "expectations on the part of many investors that oil has entered its twilight years."

  • Plus, while the prospectus is largely meant to promote the company ahead of the offering, the various disclosures on climate-related risk state, "Climate change concerns and impacts could reduce global demand for hydrocarbons and hydrocarbon-based products and could cause the Company to incur costs or invest additional capital."

Go deeper:

Go deeper

Updated 7 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Health: Large coronavirus outbreaks leading to high death rates — Coronavirus cases are at an all-time high ahead of Election Day — U.S. tops 88,000 COVID-19 cases, setting new single-day record.
  2. Politics: States beg for Warp Speed billions.
  3. World: Taiwan reaches a record 200 days with no local coronavirus cases.
  4. 🎧Podcast: The vaccine race turns toward nationalism.

Technical glitch in Facebook's ad tools creates political firestorm

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg. Photo: SOPA Images / Contributor

Facebook said late Thursday that a mix of "technical problems" and confusion among advertisers around its new political ad ban rules caused issues affecting ad campaigns of both parties.

Why it matters: A report out Thursday morning suggested the ad tools were causing campaign ads, even those that adhered to Facebook's new rules, to be paused. Very quickly, political campaigners began asserting the tech giant was enforcing policies in a way that was biased against their campaigns.

8 hours ago - Health

States beg for Warp Speed billions

A COVID-19 drive-thru testing center yesterday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Photo: David Santiago/Miami Herald via AP

Operation Warp Speed has an Achilles' heel: States need billions to distribute vaccines — and many say they don't have the cash.

Why it matters: The first emergency use authorization could come as soon as next month, but vaccines require funding for workers, shipping and handling, and for reserving spaces for vaccination sites.