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Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

Driving the news: The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s.

  • This week, the International Energy Agency will unveil its closely watched annual World Energy Outlook.
  • IEA's three main scenarios project future demand through 2040 based on existing policies, on announced plans, and on a world with policies aligned with the Paris agreement goals.

Why it matters: The timing of peak demand has big repercussions for the planet, and the strategy and future of oil producers.

The big picture: The prospectus makes the case that Aramco is very nicely positioned to increase market share in a world where global thirst for oil is flat or declining.

  • They argue that their comparatively low per-barrel production costs and emissions give them an edge.
  • The 658-page document sees Saudi crude, condensate and natural gas liquid supplies growing through at least 2050.

But, but, but: Bloomberg's Liam Denning connects the dots between the upcoming Aramco IPO and the flop of Brazil's big offshore auction late last week, which he notes is a sign of "expectations on the part of many investors that oil has entered its twilight years."

  • Plus, while the prospectus is largely meant to promote the company ahead of the offering, the various disclosures on climate-related risk state, "Climate change concerns and impacts could reduce global demand for hydrocarbons and hydrocarbon-based products and could cause the Company to incur costs or invest additional capital."

Go deeper:

Go deeper

U.S. grants temporary protected status to thousands of Venezuelans

Venezuelan citizens participate in the vote for the popular consultation in December 2020, as part of a protest against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Doral, Florida. Photo: Chandan Khanna/AFP

Venezuelans living in the United States will be eligible to receive temporary protected status for 18 months, the Department of Homeland Security announced Monday.

Why it matters: Tens of thousands of Venezuelans have fled to the U.S. amid economic, political and social turmoil back home. Former President Trump, on his last full day in office, granted some protections to Venezuelans through the U.S. Deferred Enforced Departure program, but advocates and lawmakers said the move didn't go far enough.

"She-cession" threatens economic recovery

Illustration: Sarah Grillo

Decades of the slow economic progress women made catching up to men evaporated in just one year.

Why it matters: As quickly as those gains were erased, it could take much, much longer for them to return — a warning Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen issued today.

The Week America Changed

Sandberg thought Zuckerberg was "nuts" on remote work in January 2020

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Paul Marotta/Getty Image

Chief operating officer Sheryl Sandberg thought Mark Zuckerberg was "nuts" when he raised the possibility in January 2020 that 50,000 Facebook employees might have to work from home. By March 6, they were.

Why it matters: In an interview Monday with Axios Re:Cap, Sandberg explained how Facebook moved quickly to respond to the pandemic with grants for small businesses and work-from-home stipends for its employees, and how the company has been watching the unfolding crisis for women in the workforce.