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Ottawa, Illinois, 2019. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

In most of the 10 states that will likely lose a House seat due to reapportionment beginning in 2022, current demographic trends are poised to shift political power from rural counties to metropolitan counties, according to an analysis by The Hill's Reid Wilson.

Why it matters: Census counts are crucial for determining political representation in the House, and minor changes in population can alter a state's power in Congress for a decade.

What to watch:

  • Illinois will likely lose one of its 18 House seats, with 93 of the state's 102 counties losing population in the last decade. Only suburban Chicago counties substantially gained population.
    • When Illinois loses its seat, legislators will likely dissolve one of the state's six downstate, rural districts — five of which are held by Republicans.
  • Rhode Island is expected to drop one of its two House seats, falling to one representative for the first time since 1788. Four of the state’s five counties lost residents since 2010. Only Providence, the state’s largest city, experienced population growth.
  • Ohio is set to lose one of its 16 congressional districts. 59 of its 88 counties have experienced population decline since 2010, with almost all of the state's net population growth coming from Columbus, its largest city.

Of note: California and Alabama are the only states losing congressional districts that fall outside of the Northeast or the Rust Belt.

  • 44 of Alabama's 67 counties lost population in the last decade.
  • California's growth has slowed despite adding around 1.8 million residents since 2010. It will likely drop one of its 53 seats for the first time since it became a state in 1850.

The big picture: America's 100 largest counties added 9.8 million people in the last decade. Only 11 of the largest counties lost population — all of them in Rust Belt and Northeastern cities like Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and Pittsburgh.

  • Two-thirds of America's 2,153 counties with fewer than 50,000 residents have lost population over the same period. Those counties lost a net 238,000 residents.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

4 mins ago - Health

WHO: AstraZeneca vaccine must be evaluated on "more than a press release"

A medical syringe and vial with fake coronavirus vaccine in front of the World Health Organization (WHO) logo. Photo Illustration: Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Top scientists at the World Health Organization on Friday called for more detailed information on a coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford.

Why it matters: Oxford and AstraZeneca have said the vaccine was 90% effective in people who got a half dose followed by a full dose, and 62% effective in people who got two full doses. AstraZeneca has since acknowledged that the smaller dose received by some participants was the result of an error by a contractor, per the New York Times.

Court rejects Trump campaign's appeal in Pennsylvania case

Photo: Sarah Silbiger for The Washington Post via Getty Images

A federal appeals court on Friday unanimously rejected the Trump campaign's emergency appeal seeking to file a new lawsuit against Pennsylvania's election results, writing in a blistering ruling that the campaign's "claims have no merit."

Why it matters: It's another devastating blow to President Trump's sinking efforts to overturn the results of the election. Pennsylvania, which President-elect Joe Biden won by more than 80,000 votes, certified its results last week and is expected to award 20 electoral votes to Biden on Dec. 12.

Dave Lawler, author of World
2 hours ago - World

Belarus dictator Lukashenko says he'll leave post after new constitution

Photo: Valery Sharifulin\TASS via Getty

Longtime Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko has said he will step down after a new constitution comes into force, according to Belarusian state media.

Why it matters: Lukashenko has faced three months of protests following a rigged election in August. He has promised to reform the constitution to reduce the near-absolute powers of the president, but has insisted that his strong hand is needed to see that process through.