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Rise of the stock-market bear

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

Investing bears have spent the past several years getting stomped by the bull market, but expect their negative roars to begin getting louder. Particularly after next month, when the current economic expansion officially becomes the second-longest in American history.

Be smart: No one ever correctly predicts the specific end of a market cycle. This is more if than when, and data points are giving the naysayers more courage of their convictions.

Here is what supports pessimistic view:

  • Big tax cuts married to big spending increases.
  • Trade uncertainty.
  • VC firms raising their largest-ever funds (by far).
  • Rising Fed rates for the first time in many people’s entire business careers.

Key quote: "The probability of a recession prior to the next presidential election would be relatively high, 70% or something like that." — hedge-fund billionaire Ray Dalio

Data: Money.net; Chart: Axios Visuals
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