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Lukashenko (L) and Putin on the ice earlier this year. Photo: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

With Vladimir Putin's presidential mandate expiring in 2024, there's growing speculation he'll try to hold on to power by forming a Russia-Belarus union and placing himself in charge.

Why it matters: It's a distinct possibility given Putin's penchant for using legalistic steps to maintain a semblance of legitimacy. But it's not just about Putin’s job security — the Kremlin is waging a "creeping assault" on its neighbor's sovereignty and will take whatever steps it deems necessary to keep Belarus in its orbit, according to new research discussed today at the German Marshall Fund.

  • The groundwork is being laid though a misinformation campaign with links to the Kremlin. One frequent claim is that the Belarusian identity is a recent invention, promoted by the West to weaken Russia.
  • Russia-linked outlets are better funded and in many cases more trusted than local competitors, which have suffered under longtime strongman Alexander Lukashenko. That allows Russian propaganda to spread.
  • Polls show that few Belarusians are currently in favor of joining Russia, though most want close ties to Moscow.

A Ukraine-style military confrontation is unlikely, the experts said. Two scenarios were raised for how a union could be secured:

  • Lukashenko is coerced into allowing constitutional changes, or a unity referendum.
  • Something happens to Lukashenko and a pliant pro-Moscow regime is installed.

What to watch: Russia would also intervene if its "red lines" in Belarus are crossed, the experts said. Those include threats to military cooperation or the flow of Russian oil and gas through Belarus, and deeper Belarusian economic integration with Europe.

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Updated 3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

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DOJ: Capitol rioter threatened to "assassinate" Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Supporters of former President Trump storm the U.S. Captiol on Jan. 6. Photo: Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

A Texas man who has been charged with storming the U.S. Capitol in the deadly Jan. 6 siege posted death threats against Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), the Department of Justice said.

The big picture: Garret Miller faces five charges in connection to the riot by supporters of former President Trump, including violent entry and disorderly conduct on Capitol grounds and making threats. According to court documents, Miller posted violent threats online the day of the siege, including tweeting “Assassinate AOC.”

Schumer calls for IG probe into alleged plan by Trump, DOJ lawyer to oust acting AG

Jeffrey Clark speaks next to Deputy US Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen at a news conference in October. Photo: Yuri Gripas/AFP via Getty Images.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Saturday called for the Justice Department inspector general to investigate an alleged plan by former President Trump and a DOJ lawyer to remove the acting attorney general and replace him with someone more willing to investigate unfounded claims of election fraud.

Driving the news: The New York Times first reported Friday that the lawyer, Jeffrey Clark, allegedly devised "ways to cast doubt on the election results and to bolster Mr. Trump’s continuing legal battles and the pressure on Georgia politicians. Because Mr. [Jeffrey] Rosen had refused the president’s entreaties to carry out those plans, Mr. Trump was about to decide whether to fire Mr. Rosen and replace him with Mr. Clark."