Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
With President-elect Trump heading back to the White House and Republicans taking control of the Senate, expect lawmakers to focus on competition with China and staying out of the way of tech innovation.
The big picture: The GOP has control of the Senate and that margin could increase, giving Trump a solid Senate majority to work with in his second term.
- The GOP will have control over the powerful Senate Commerce Committee, where Sen. Ted Cruz is poised to take the helm.
- Cruz faces competition from Sen. John Thune, who would want to lead the committee if he doesn't win the race to be Senate Majority Leader.
- Thune is known for getting into the weeds of tech and telecom policy while his opponent for majority leader, John Cornyn, is a noted China hawk.
What we're watching: The House is still up in the air and may not be known for days, but it is the Democrats' last chance of having some control of government and blocking tech legislation they don't agree with.
Winners and losers: Big Tech will come under fire. That's especially true if Cruz, who has spearheaded a number of investigations into companies for allegedly being in cahoots with the Biden administration or censoring conservative speech, is in charge of Senate Commerce.
- Groups on the left working on issues from AI to consumer protection will lose a friendly administration in D.C. and are likely to focus on passing legislation in solid blue states, according to the Chamber of Progress.
- X should avoid much of the backlash, as Elon Musk has cozied up to Trump and is poised to wield significant influence.
- Musk's goal of shrinking the federal government could undermine agency efforts in the tech space. They've had to staff up and have sought to get more resources from Congress after AI responsibilities grew under the Biden administration, and those could be in jeopardy.
- AI companies will benefit from a Republican Senate writ-large as beating China in a global tech race will be prioritized over any efforts to regulate AI harms.
The Commerce Committee has for years tried to pass bipartisan comprehensive privacy legislation and kids online protections.
- For comprehensive privacy, the new chair will face the same partisan disagreements over an individual's right to sue and preempting state laws.
- The bipartisan Kids Online Safety Act has cleared the Senate and its Republican backers may have an easier time getting the measure across the finish line if Democrats take control of the House.
The Finance Committee will host digital trade debates that are sure to heat up under Trump.
- Ranking Member Mike Crapo is the likely chair.
And the Banking Committee will likely be led by Sen. Tim Scott.
- This committee will likely become more relevant for tech policy as export controls and limits on outbound investments take center stage.
- Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Jack Reed are among the contenders for ranking member.
On broadband, hope of reviving the Affordable Connectivity Program is dampened with Cruz in charge, as he's criticized the program as being inefficient.
- Cruz advocated having the FCC's Universal Service Fund to be taken over by the congressional appropriations process instead of getting funded through fees on phone companies.
What's next: Trump's nominations for key tech oversight agencies will likely breeze through the upper chamber with little to no trouble.
- Republicans are eager to avoid giving agencies like the FTC any more authority, for example.
