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Netflix projected to decline among U.S. viewers for first time

Tim Baysinger
Sep 28, 2022
Data: Insider Intelligence; Note: Includes individuals who watch Netflix by app, connected TV device or website at least once a month; Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios

Netflix's subscriber losses will lead to a dip in U.S. viewers for the streaming giant for the first time, according to Insider Intelligence's latest forecast.

Why it matters: Netflix's stalled growth — particularly in the U.S. and Canada — is just one reason why the company is introducing a cheaper, ad-supported version in the coming months.

By the numbers: The addition of the ad tier should restart Netflix's growth in 2023, Insider forecasts, but not by much.

  • Netflix's viewership is only expected to rise 1.7% over the next two years, before slowing down to 1.6% growth in 2025 and 2026.
  • Though Netflix will still command a 65.6% share of all digital viewers in 2022, that figure is expected to remain largely static amid increasing competition.
  • Through the first half of 2022, Netflix has lost more than 1.9 million subscribers in U.S. and Canada, the most of any region.

The bottom line: "Netflix is losing viewers to lower-priced competitors that are pouring massive resources into content development," said Oscar Bruce Jr., senior forecasting analyst at Insider Intelligence.

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