Senators to watch on the first reconciliation vote
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Senate Majority Leader John Thune wants to force a procedural vote on reconciliation around 4pm ET today. Here are some of the senators likely to cause headaches.
Why it matters: Thune can only afford three GOP defections to move forward with — and eventually pass the bill — with a tie-breaking vote from Vice President JD Vance.
The no's:
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has long been clear that he would vote against the package due to it raising the debt ceiling. He is not one to fold — like, ever.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told reporters after a lunch on Saturday that he would vote "no" both on the initial procedural vote and the final bill.
- He has concerns about how the Medicaid changes would impact his state, and he's up for re-election next year. He wants to go back to House Medicaid language.
The question marks:
Sens. Mike Lee, Ron Johnson and Rick Scott are coordinating and planning to vote as a conservative bloc.
- "We are waiting, among other things, to see how this scores," Lee told reporters on Saturday.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski is no stranger to being a swing vote. She has raised concerns about the Medicaid measures in the bill, but has also managed to win Alaska-specific caveats and tax breaks, which could be enough to win her over.
The reluctant yes's:
Sen. Susan Collins is another frequent swing vote, and is also running for re-election next year in a blue state. She said she will vote yes to move forward, but is leaning toward "no" for the final passage vote.
Sen. Bill Cassidy is also running for re-election next year and had been raising some concerns about the provider tax provision, but told reporters he was a "yes" on the motion to proceed and was "still reviewing" the overall bill.
Sen. Josh Hawley told reporters on Saturday that he plans to vote yes on both the procedural vote and the final passage of the bill, due to the newest text delaying the implementation of lowering Medicaid provider taxes. He also touted the new rural hospital provider relief fund.
- "I'm going to spend the next however long trying to make sure that the [Medicaid] cuts that we have successfully delayed never take place," he said.
