Illustration: Rae Cook/Axios
The Biden administration within days is expected to pick the next 15 drugs that will be subject to Medicare drug price negotiations and further advance one of Democrats' signature health policy achievements.
Why it matters: Under the IRA, the Trump administration has to follow through with the talks, unless Republicans in Congress repeal the drug pricing provision or courts stop the process.
State of play: The list of drugs up for negotiation has to be released by Feb. 1, but it's likely that Biden administration officials will announce the next drugs before leaving office Jan. 20, experts say.
- Novo Nordisk's semaglutide products, including Ozempic and Wegovy, will likely be among the drugs chosen.
- Medicare doesn't yet cover these products for weight loss, but their prescriptions for diabetes and heart disease treatment still cost the program an estimated $7.5 billion in 2023.
The intrigue: Bringing down the price of semaglutide for seniors could be a political sweetener for the incoming Trump administration, despite widespread GOP opposition to the negotiations.
- The Biden administration in November proposed expanding Medicare coverage of the drugs for obesity. That left the fate of a policy change that could cost taxpayers roughly $40 billion over a decade with the Trump administration.
What we're watching: Whether Republicans in Congress get serious about repealing Medicare's authority to negotiate drug prices.
- Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo told Axios last year that he'd want to "remove and replace" the drug price negotiation policy if Republicans gained a majority in the Senate.
- But lawmakers now face other priorities and a lack of clarity around what a replacement would look like.
- A more politically feasible compromise would be to give drugmakers longer market exclusivity before their products are subject to negotiations.
Last year's inaugural negotiation process yielded lower prices for 10 widely used products, including popular blood thinners and diabetes drugs, that officials say will save seniors $1.5 billion in 2026, when they first take effect.
- Prices on the next batch of drugs would change in 2027.
