Democrats see a path to retaking the House that targets moderate Republicans who've occasionally broken with their party on energy and climate issues, Daniel and Nick write.

Why it matters: Control of Congress' lower chamber will be key to rolling back — or building on — Biden administration energy and climate programs.

Here are the matchups we're watching, with race ratings courtesy of Cook Political Report.

1. N.Y. 19: GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro vs. Josh Riley

Molinaro, a freshman who sits on the Agriculture and Transportation and Infrastructure committees, is facing a toss-up rematch of his 2022 election.

• Molinaro broke with his party last year to vote against the repeal of Biden's two-year moratorium on new solar tariffs.
• But Molinaro voted for House GOP legislation that repeals some IRA energy tax credits. He has a 19% LCV score.
• Riley, endorsed by LCV and Sierra Club, "will champion the protection of New York's natural resources and accelerate the green transition," LCV says.

2. Alaska at-large: Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in a ranked-choice election against several opponents

The fight over oil and gas drilling in the Arctic takes center stage in this toss-up race.

• Peltola vocally supported the Biden administration's controversial approval of the Willow oil drilling project and expressed frustration at its decision to cancel leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
• But Peltola then voted present on legislation that reversed that leasing decision, citing a provision that she said harms tribes and fishing communities. And she has an 88% LCV score.
• Republican Nicholas Begich, her most notable opponent, portrayed himself as a better friend of the industry: "The Democrats have it out for Alaska oil and gas," he said during an August debate.

3. Ariz. 6: Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani vs. Kirsten Engel

This is another toss-up rematch that will focus on EV, mining and solar power issues.

• Ciscomani introduced a bipartisan bill that would make it easier for households to permit rooftop solar systems, praised a battery cell gigafactory in southern Arizona, and has been outspoken on the need to secure a supply of battery minerals.
• He's been criticized by Democrats for voting against the IRA (which spurred battery projects like the one in his district) and voting for a GOP funding bill that dramatically cut DOE programs. He has a 14% LCV score.
• Engel, an environmental lawyer who worked for the EPA, says she's "prepared to tackle the water and climate crisis that threatens Southern Arizona's future," in part by seeking better water management across the West.

4. Iowa 1: Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks vs. Christina Bohannan

This Republican-leaning race pits the House Conservative Climate Caucus chair against a former environmental engineer who challenged her in 2022.

• Miller-Meeks was among 18 House Republicans who sent a letter (along with Ciscomani, Molinaro, and Kiggans) warning Speaker Mike Johnson against repealing IRA tax credits.
• But she has a 12% lifetime LCV score, which sank to 8% last year.
• "Iowa leads the nation in wind and solar production. My opponent denies that climate change is a real threat requiring immediate action," Bohannan wrote on X.

5. Calif. 41: Republican Rep. Ken Calvert vs. Will Rollins

This toss-up race threatens the three-decade reign of Calvert, a top defense appropriator who's active on water and endangered species issues.

• Calvert has introduced bipartisan legislation that would reduce diesel engine emissions and voted to roll back the Biden administration's WOTUS rule.
• Rollins supports boosting clean energy incentives, energy efficiency programs, and rebates to consumers to make EVs affordable and cut gasoline consumption.

6. Va. 2: Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans vs. Missy Cotter Smasal

This lean-Republican race highlights an offshore wind project in a coastal district vulnerable to sea-level rise and climate-fueled storms.

• Kiggans called the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project a "win for all Virginians" and has worked on bipartisan legislation to preserve coastlines.
• Cotter Smasal has pointed to her work as a citizen representative on the Chesapeake Bay Commission as proof she can reach across the aisle.

Nippon Steel's plan to buy U.S. Steel would lock in reliance on fossil fuels and potentially cause job losses, the Sierra Club and about two dozen other advocacy groups have told Congress.

Why it matters: The letter provided to Axios — sent to 12 lawmakers representing steel regions — marks the first time that major climate concerns have been publicly raised about the nearly $15 billion proposed deal, Daniel writes.

• "Nippon Steel's fixation on coal-dependence would be the death knell for U.S. Steel facilities," the lawmakers said of the Japanese steelmaker's plan.

State of play: The letter comes as the inter-agency Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States weighs the deal.

• CFIUS said Aug. 31 that the transaction posed a risk to national security by threatening the steel supply chain for critical U.S. industries.
• In September, the panel allowed Nippon to refile its application, meaning a decision could be returned after the Nov. 5 election.

Driving the news: The groups argue that Nippon's plan will undermine the momentum to clean up the steel industry.

• The Energy Department has recently backed industrial demonstration projects to use hydrogen and electrify steel facilities, the groups point out.

The other side: A U.S. Steel spokesperson said the company was committed to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

• Nippon would invest $2.7 billion into union-represented facilities that would bring environmental benefits, she said.
• "A transaction with Nippon Steel is the best avenue to ensure that U. S. Steel will be able to thrive well into the future," she said.

What they're saying: "The president's and the vice president's position is that it is vital for US Steel to remain an American steel company that is domestically owned and operated," Saloni Sharma, a White House spokesperson, said in a statement. "The president told our steelworkers he has their backs, and he means it."

• Former President Donald Trump has also said he would block the deal if he retakes the White House.

The Supreme Court begins a new term next week with cases that could ripple through the energy and climate space, Daniel writes.

Why it matters: The conservative court has taken aim at environmental regulations and this year struck down the Chevron doctrine that allowed federal agencies deference to interpret vague statutes.

What we're watching: A case to settle whether the Nuclear Regulatory Commission can permit a privately owned temporary nuclear waste storage site over Texas' opposition.

• Another case involves whether the EPA's denial of Renewable Fuel Standard exemption petitions filed by small refineries are D.C. Circuit for challenges to "nationally applicable" EPA actions that belong in the D.C. Circuit.

The court may also decide soon on requests to the court's "shadow docket" from industry groups seeking to halt three recent EPA standards:

• Carbon rules for power plants in West Virginia v. EPA
• Methane curbs on oil and gas operations in Oklahoma v. EPA
• Mercury and air toxics rules for coal power plants in NACCO v. EPA.

What they're saying: A stay in any of those shadow docket cases would show further "deep hostility to the traditional and well-established authorities to use the Clean Air Act to protect the health and welfare of the American people, as well as hostility to the precedent of rare emergency stays," the Natural Resources Defense Council said in a memo to reporters.

🍪 1. CHIPS approvals: President Biden signed the Building Chips in America Act, which would expedite environmental reviews for semiconductor plants.

• Biden signed the bill over objections from the Sierra Club that the reviews are necessary to protect the environment and worker health and safety.

🌎 2. Share the heat: Michael Bennet and 13 other Senate Democrats want the Treasury Department to change its energy investment tax credit guidance to allow all owners of geothermal heat pump equipment to claim the credit.

• Treasury's proposed guidance would "severely inhibit the adoption" of both home- and community-based heat pump systems, which typically have multiple owners, the letter said.

☀️ 3. Let the sun shine: Sen. Ben Ray Luján introduced legislation to require the DOE to expand existing grant, loan and financing programs to include community solar programs. It would also require electric utilities to offer a community solar program.

• The bill has a House companion introduced by Rep. Kathy Castor.