
Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios
Democrats see a path to retaking the House that targets moderate Republicans who've occasionally broken with their party on energy and climate issues.
Why it matters: Control of Congress' lower chamber will be key to rolling back — or building on — Biden administration energy and climate programs.
Here are the matchups we're watching, with race ratings courtesy of Cook Political Report.
1. N.Y. 19: GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro vs. Josh Riley
Molinaro, a freshman who sits on the Agriculture and Transportation and Infrastructure committees, is facing a toss-up rematch of his 2022 election.
- Molinaro broke with his party last year to vote against the repeal of Biden's two-year moratorium on new solar tariffs.
- But Molinaro voted for House GOP legislation that repeals some IRA energy tax credits. He has a 19% LCV score.
- Riley, endorsed by LCV and the Sierra Club, "will champion the protection of New York's natural resources and accelerate the green transition," LCV says.
2. Alaska at-large: Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in a ranked-choice election against several opponents
The fight over oil and gas drilling in the Arctic takes center stage in this toss-up race.
- Peltola vocally supported the Biden administration's controversial approval of the Willow oil drilling project and expressed frustration at its decision to cancel leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
- But Peltola then voted present on legislation that reversed that leasing decision, citing a provision that she said harms tribes and fishing communities. And she has a 88% LCV score.
- Republican Nicholas Begich, her most notable opponent, portrayed himself as a better friend of the industry: "The Democrats have it out for Alaska oil and gas," he said during an August debate.
3. Ariz. 6: Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani vs. Kirsten Engel
This is another toss-up rematch that will focus on EV, mining and solar power issues.
- Ciscomani introduced a bipartisan bill that would make it easier for households to permit rooftop solar systems, praised a battery cell gigafactory in southern Arizona, and has been outspoken on the need to secure a supply of battery minerals.
- He's been criticized by Democrats for voting against the IRA (which spurred battery projects like the one in his district) and voting for a GOP funding bill that dramatically cut DOE programs. He has a 14% LCV score.
- Engel, an environmental lawyer who worked for the EPA, states she's "prepared to tackle the water and climate crisis that threatens Southern Arizona's future," in part by seeking better water management across the West.
4. Iowa 1: Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks vs. Christina Bohannan
This Republican-leaning race pits the House Conservative Climate Caucus chair against a former environmental engineer who challenged her in 2022.
- Miller-Meeks was among 18 House Republicans who sent a letter (along with Ciscomani, Molinaro, and Kiggans) warning Speaker Mike Johnson against repealing IRA tax credits.
- But she has a 12% lifetime LCV score, which sank to 8% last year.
- "Iowa leads the nation in wind and solar production. My opponent denies that climate change is a real threat requiring immediate action," Bohannan wrote on X.
5. Calif. 41: Republican Rep. Ken Calvert vs. Will Rollins
This toss-up race threatens the three-decade reign of Calvert, a top defense appropriator who's active on water and endangered species issues.
- Calvert has introduced bipartisan legislation that would reduce diesel engine emissions and voted to roll back the Biden administration's WOTUS rule.
- Rollins supports boosting clean energy incentives, energy efficiency programs, and rebates to consumers to make EVs affordable and cut gasoline consumption.
6. Va. 2: Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans vs. Missy Cotter Smasal
This lean-Republican race highlights an offshore wind project in a coastal district vulnerable to sea-level rise and climate-fueled storms.
- Kiggans called the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project a "win for all Virginians" and has worked on bipartisan legislation to preserve coastlines.
- Cotter Smasal has pointed to her work as a citizen representative on the Chesapeake Bay Commission as proof she can reach across the aisle.

