Conservatives push for more IRA cuts as budget vote looms
Illustration: Annelise Capossela / Axios
The future of IRA energy incentives hangs in part on a fight this week between GOP hardliners and moderates.
Why it matters: House Republicans, who promised for months to approach the IRA with a scalpel, appear increasingly willing to use a sledgehammer.
Driving the news: Conservatives say they're angling to amend the reconciliation package to further curtail clean energy credits before the bill hits the House floor this week.
- Four voted "present" during a Budget Committee meeting late Sunday night, enabling the panel to send the package to the floor.
- Rep. Chip Roy, who has crusaded for a full repeal of the IRA, said Sunday that the bill "now will move Medicaid work requirements forward and reduces the availability of future subsidies under the green new scam."
- But he added that it "does not yet meet the moment — leaving almost half of the green new scam subsidies continuing."
Between the lines: Any move to further roll back IRA energy credits could risk losing up to a dozen House Republicans who signed a statement last week urging their party keep the credits accessible.
- The statement, led by Rep. Jen Kiggans, said the reconciliation proposal's foreign entity of concern provisions were "overly prescriptive and risk undermining U.S. competitiveness" and that it was "essential" the projects access the credits when they begin construction.
- Kiggans also teamed with Reps. Andrew Garbarino, Dan Newhouse, Mark Amodei and David Valadao on legislation to more "responsibly" phase out the tax credits.
Reality check: Although IRA-friendly Republicans have promised to protect some IRA credits, none have explicitly pledged to vote against the larger package if their favored tax credits were curtailed.
"Johnson seems to be facing more pressure from hardliners than moderates right now," ClearView Energy Partners wrote in a Friday note. "These dynamics could leave room for deeper IRA cuts … at least for now."
- "Which is to say: if IRA defenders within the GOP conference intend to raise their voices in protest, they don't have much time (at least in this round)," it added.
What's next: The Rules Committee is set to meet at 1am Wednesday. (Yes, you read that right.)
- That's where we could see substantive changes to the bill, possibly in the form of a manager's amendment.
- Two Budget Committee holdouts — Roy and Rep. Ralph Norman — also serve on Rules, so expect the deficit hawks to wield influence over the final product.
Our thought bubble: As time runs short on IRA defense in the House, we're closely watching Senate Republicans who could seek IRA changes.
- Sens. Lisa Murkowski, John Curtis, Thom Tillis and Jerry Moran all signed a pro-IRA letter last month.
- But expect other senators like Bill Cassidy, Lindsey Graham, Chuck Grassley, and Joni Ernst to face rising pressure to reverse some of the hardliners' cuts.
