Photo illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images
The year ahead will be an exercise in how many Republicans try to sink their party's aspirations — and how many Democrats cross party lines to make that a reality.
Why it matters: A GOP sweep of Congress and second Trump administration bring lofty goals to roll back Biden climate incentives. But razor-thin majorities in both chambers complicate that path.
Here's how that could play out.…
Speaker drama: Friday's vote for House speaker will be the first test of how chaotic this Congress is going to be.
- Mike Johnson has a tiny margin and no room for additional defections.
- If Republicans again take days — or weeks — to get the situation under control, it'll raise doubts about their ability to pass large-scale legislation.
Spending: The mid-March appropriations deadline will be the next proving ground for the GOP's anti-IRA aspirations.
- Republicans want to reprogram IRA dollars from DOE's Loan Programs Office in the House energy-water bill.
- That fight will be a sign of how much policy Republicans can make via appropriations during Trump 2.0.
Taxes: Republicans want to do multiple reconciliations bills — with IRA repeal on the table. Beyond that, the path forward is uncertain.
- Big-ticket items being discussed include oil, gas and geothermal leasing and a repeal of the EV credit and methane fee.
Confirmations: Senate committees will get moving quickly this month on confirmation hearings for President-elect Trump's nominees.
- His picks for EPA, Interior and DOE all look to have easy roads to confirmation.
It's permitting week: The never-ending debate about environmental permitting will continue, but the path forward is even less clear than it was last year.
- As Sen. Joe Manchin put it to Nick, the House will have to come around on transmission issues, "unless they want to blow the Senate up."
Mining machinations: Republicans (and a growing group of Democrats) will renew a push for legislation that aims to wean the U.S. off China for minerals that are crucial for energy and defense.
- We saw a slate of bills dropped last month by the House China committee. Bills to add copper to the USGS critical mineral list and "fix" an antimining court ruling are on the agenda after passing the GOP-led House.
- Rep. Pete Stauber told Axios he's in discussions with a "very influential" Democrat to join his long-running push to permit more mining in the U.S. — a politically sensitive topic for progressives.
- We're also watching Rep. Eric Swalwell, who has pledged that more members of his party are coming around to the idea that mining can be environmentally responsible.
Farm bill fight: Lawmakers were forced to extend the 2018 farm bill for a second consecutive year after they failed to reach a deal on a new five-year legislation.
- The IRA's $17 billion for climate-smart ag practices was a core disagreement in the final hours.
- Democrats accused Republicans of seeking to roll back that money to pay for reconciliation bills in early 2025.
- House Republicans initially backed adding that money (without strict climate guardrails) into the farm bill baseline last year, but ultimately didn't accept the Democrats' offer.
Everything else: The last Congress failed to reauthorize PHMSA and the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards program.
- Lawmakers also didn't pass the AM radio vehicle mandate bill and year-round E15 waiver bills, both of which are likely to get a renewed push.
- Talks over a sweeping solution to the PFAS problem broke down in EPW over the liability of water systems, but expect Sen. Shelley Moore Capito to try again.
- Meanwhile, the Energy Act of 2020 soon turns 5 years old. Congress will start talking about reauthorizing some DOE programs expanded in the law, including weatherization assistance and renewable and carbon capture R&D.
