Alaskans look to rehash ANWR

• With Alaskan anger over the Biden administration's last-minute leasing plan, next year's reconciliation push could once again help determine oil's future in the Last Frontier.

Driving the news: Sen. Dan Sullivan said Alaskans "have some ideas" about how to address ANWR in reconciliation.

• "We're gonna try and bulletproof this from Democrats being able to come in and violate the law," he told Axios.
• Other Republicans sounded open to the idea, too, as a potential pay-for to help make either an extension of the tax cuts or border spending look revenue neutral.
• "That's a little bit of unfinished business for President Trump," Sen. Kevin Cramer told Axios. "I think he sees it as something that the current administration sort of stole from him."

Flashback: Alaskans got language into the TCJA mandating at least two oil and gas lease sales in the 19-million-acre refuge, overcoming objections from Sen. Susan Collins and moderate House Republicans (as well as the Senate parliamentarian).

• It was a huge win for the delegation that capped off a fight dating back decades.
• At the time, they argued the provision would generate more than $1 billion in revenue to offset the tax cuts.

Yes, but: It hasn't worked out that way. The first lease sale at the end of Trump's first term generated $14.4 million in bids and little interest from the oil industry.

• The Biden administration last week finalized a second lease sale for next month, restricting it to the minimum possible acreage. 
• It said they had consulted with native groups on the sale and that it would avoid important polar bear and caribou habitat.

• Environmental groups have pledged to continue fighting any oil and gas development in ANWR.

Between the lines: The Biden leasing plan may end up bringing this legislative push to life because it incensed the Alaska delegation and some native groups in the state.

• "It's a joke," Sullivan said. "They say, 'Oh, we did this because the native people wanted it,' and it's such bullshit."
• Republicans say they haven't gotten into details on reconciliation as a conference, but Sen. Shelley Moore Capito said she "would expect ANWR to be a part of it."

Our thought bubble: Republicans may get a CBO score that says this helps pay for tax cuts or border policy — but keep in mind that revenue numbers for reconciliation bills aren't always gospel.

• Look no further than the outside estimates of the IRA's presumed cost compared with its initial score.
• If this push pans out, it'll be the revenge of the Alaskans.