Trump campaigns in Albuquerque last week. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Donald Trump's return to the White House will be earth-shattering for energy and climate policy.
Why it matters: Trump is unlikely to be successful in repealing the IRA, but he can significantly slow its implementation, and he'll be able to undo a slew of Biden climate rules.
- Get ready for his administration to try to cut the spending spigots — with or without congressional action.
The big picture: Trump campaigned on a reversal of virtually everything President Biden has done on energy and climate policy.
- That means attempts to slam the brakes on the climate law, another move to withdraw from the Paris agreement and a quick unpause of the LNG export permitting pause.
- Trump is fairly similar to Biden on tariffs, but many in industry are fearful that he'd escalate into damaging trade wars.
Zoom in: Electric vehicles — both the 30D tax credit and the Biden auto emissions standards — will be in the crosshairs from day one.
- He'll also likely move to reverse the Biden administration's power plant greenhouse gas rules.
- On the Hill, the 2025 tax debate will dictate much of what Trump can get done at the beginning of his administration. At the very least, parts of the IRA will be on the table as pay-fors.
- And he's likely to install leadership at Treasury, EPA and DOE that would intentionally slow IRA programs and rewrite implementing rules with more anti-China stipulations.
Context: It's worth noting that a lot of this will be tied up in the courts and administrative procedure for quite some time.
- Recall that it took until 2019 for the last Trump administration to issue its replacement for the Obama-era Clean Power Plan.
- The Supreme Court last month declined to freeze the Biden version of the carbon emissions rules while the legal challenges play out, but the Trump administration could decline to defend them or simply stop them as it does another rewrite.
What we're watching: While Trump has distanced himself from Project 2025, many of the people who wrote it are likely to hold real sway in his administration.
- Plus, some of the folks who were in charge toward the end of his last administration — namely former EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler and former Interior Secretary David Bernhardt — have stayed in Trump circles in the last four years.
- That may make his transition smoother this time around.
Our thought bubble: A Trump White House may also change the calculus for Republicans in the lame duck, since they now have a fresh opportunity to go after sacrosanct environmental laws like the Clean Water and Endangered Species acts.
- Trump, however, didn't prove to be a skilled negotiator on this stuff during his first presidency.
- Sure, his administration overhauled NEPA implementation, and he'll almost certainly do that again after the Biden administration made its own changes.
- But Trump's efforts on the Hill to cement that agenda with an infrastructure bill repeatedly fell flat. (Infrastructure Week, anyone?)
