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BFD Expert Voices - Climate Deals

BFD Expert Voices

President Trump's rollback of solar energy subsidies will drive all but the most well-funded project developers out of business, CleanCapital CEO Thom Byrne tells Axios Pro.

Why it matters: The upheaval presents ample acquisition opportunities for the handful of investors and developers fortunate to be sitting on piles of cash.

The big picture: Buyers are targeting solar developers with pipelines of projects but thin margins, especially local and regional "develop-and-flip" companies, Byrne says.

There were 50 solar M&A deals through the first six months of the year, a 25% increase from the same period last year, per Mercom Capital Group.

Context: NYC-based CleanCapital focuses on the middle market of solar and storage projects: arrays installed atop commercial and industrial buildings, as well as subscription-based community solar projects and small grid-connected projects up to about 30 MW.

This interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

What's happening in your swath of the solar energy sector?

"A number of projects falling to the wayside, either because the developer wasn't well-capitalized, or they have an investor who doesn't have the appetite to manage through the complexity.

The difference here is the transparent recklessness in which this administration and this Congress passed [OBBB] in complete antagonism to the energy industry — not just the clean energy industry. It shows complete disregard [for] how we're going to power the grid over the next five years.

Nothing is going to answer the power demand over the next five years other than clean energy with batteries."

Who's going to survive the next few years?

"Well-capitalized companies and investors will either consolidate, or there will be at minimum investments by the well-capitalized companies into smaller developers to see them through.

The come-to-Jesus moment hasn't occurred yet. A lot of developers have not been confronted with the challenges of how they're going to continue.

But sometime — whether it's 3 months or 12 months from now — there are going to be a lot of developers and pipelines that are stranded."

"There's going to be blackouts if we can't power the grid. Are people going to choose to power steel mills or AI?

Renewable energy plus storage is still the cheapest form of power — cheaper than coal, natural gas, nuclear. This industry has the strongest macro tailwinds behind it. 

You have to compartmentalize all the noise coming from politicians and the White House, and look at infrastructure investments on their merits over the long term."

CleanCapital CEO sees consolidation ahead for solar

CleanCapital's Thomas Byrne on post-OBBB dealmaking.

Photo illustration of Thomas Byrne next to a photo of a solar farm and colorful shapes.

Photo illustration: Axios Visuals; Photo: Courtesy of CleanCapital

President Trump&#x27;s rollback of <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="solar energy subsidies" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2025/07/14/budget-law-clean-energy-deployments-rhodium" data-vars-content-id="c5d37612-7858-4c36-947f-8dcb67d73da9" data-vars-headline="CleanCapital CEO sees consolidation ahead for solar" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2025/07/14/budget-law-clean-energy-deployments-rhodium" target="_self">solar energy subsidies</a> will drive all but the most well-funded project developers out of business, CleanCapital CEO Thom Byrne tells Axios Pro.Why it matters: The <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="upheaval" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/pro/climate-deals/2025/07/07/clean-energy-evs-big-beautiful-bill-new-reality" data-vars-content-id="c5d37612-7858-4c36-947f-8dcb67d73da9" data-vars-headline="CleanCapital CEO sees consolidation ahead for solar" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/pro/climate-deals/2025/07/07/clean-energy-evs-big-beautiful-bill-new-reality" target="_self">upheaval</a> <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="presents" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/pro/climate-deals/2025/08/01/first-solar-earnings-post-credit-era" data-vars-content-id="c5d37612-7858-4c36-947f-8dcb67d73da9" data-vars-headline="CleanCapital CEO sees consolidation ahead for solar" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/pro/climate-deals/2025/08/01/first-solar-earnings-post-credit-era" target="_self">presents</a> ample acquisition opportunities for the handful of investors and developers fortunate to be sitting on piles of cash.

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CleanCapital CEO sees consolidation ahead for solar

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